Wu Flu

[Fat Cat]

For all of you who pretend like this is about saving the lives of Americans...

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — A record 621 people died of drug overdoses in San Francisco so far this year, a staggering number that far outpaces the 173 deaths from COVID-19 the city has seen thus far.

https://apnews.com/article/san-francisc ... ea367c4d68

[Fat Cat]

Major international study from Stanford University: lockdowns, business closures & stay at home orders offer no additional protection from covid.

A group of researchers at Stanford published a peer-reviewed study earlier this month assessing the impact of lockdowns and stay-at-home orders — what they refer to as non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in early 2020. The study did not find evidence to support that NPIs were effective in preventing the spread.

“In summary, we fail to find strong evidence supporting a role for more restrictive NPIs in the control of COVID in early 2020,” the study concludes. “We do not question the role of all public health interventions, or of coordinated communications about the epidemic, but we fail to find an additional benefit of stay-at-home orders and business closures. The data cannot fully exclude the possibility of some benefits. However, even if they exist, these benefits may not match the numerous harms of these aggressive measures. More targeted public health interventions that more effectively reduce transmissions may be important for future epidemic control without the harms of highly restrictive measures.”

Article: https://www.outkick.com/stanford-study- ... me-orders/
Study: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epd ... /eci.13484

Oh hey, how 'bout that? I guess Stanford doesn't "trust the science".

[newguy]

Interesting.

Of course, you have to dig in and see what exactly they mean when they say MRNPIs versus what they mean when they say NPI.

One of the control countries they use is South Korea, which while it did not do what they call more restrictive NPIs does have a very strong and strict contact tracing, ban on travel, and isolation of covid positive people.

Reading through it, you could possibly conclude that what they call MRNPI is actually just a half measure and the argument is you've got to go full lock down to achieve any real benefit.

Either all or nothing. Stop dicking around in the middle.

[nafod]

but we fail to find an additional benefit of stay-at-home orders and business closures.

Masks, ventilation, and distancing work.

Reading through it, you could possibly conclude that what they call MRNPI is actually just a half measure and the argument is you've got to go full lock down to achieve any real benefit.

Either all or nothing. Stop dicking around in the middle.

Nothing works better than just getting rid of it.

As a thought experiment, if everyone grabs 3 weeks of food and goes and isolates for 3 weeks, the virus is gone. Finato. Ex post facto. Fuck you forever, virus. Life returns totally to normal.

That's what a hard lockdown approaches. It gets you real close, so you can contact trace and crush any pop-ups.

Our response couldn't be much shittier.

[baffled]

As a thought experiment, if everyone grabs 3 weeks of food and goes and isolates for 3 weeks, the virus is gone. Finato. Ex post facto. Fuck you forever, virus. Life returns totally to normal.

That's what a hard lockdown approaches. It gets you real close, so you can contact trace and crush any pop-ups.

Our response couldn't be much shittier.

As a thought experiment, what comes of the other viruses, influenza etc? Are we done with all of those, too?

[Fat Cat]

Interesting.

Of course, you have to dig in and see what exactly they mean when they say MRNPIs versus what they mean when they say NPI.

One of the control countries they use is South Korea, which while it did not do what they call more restrictive NPIs does have a very strong and strict contact tracing, ban on travel, and isolation of covid positive people.

Reading through it, you could possibly conclude that what they call MRNPI is actually just a half measure and the argument is you've got to go full lock down to achieve any real benefit.

Either all or nothing. Stop dicking around in the middle.

Here's an article from late December about the crisis in South Korea: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/worl ... vel-3.html

TLDR despite no fucks given for privacy or other rights we take for granted, they STILL are fucked.

[Fat Cat]

As a thought experiment, if everyone grabs 3 weeks of food and goes and isolates for 3 weeks, the virus is gone. Finato. Ex post facto. Fuck you forever, virus. Life returns totally to normal.

That's what a hard lockdown approaches. It gets you real close, so you can contact trace and crush any pop-ups.

Our response couldn't be much shittier.

As a thought experiment, what comes of the other viruses, influenza etc? Are we done with all of those, too?

No, and of course nafod has no idea what he's talking about.

We could have 100% lockdown etc. but unless EVERY OTHER COUNTRY ON EARTH does the same, at the same time, it comes right back. Exhibit A: influenza, which comes back every winter. COVID-19 is now endemic and you should anticipate it being around for the rest of your life. Basically, what happens is that these viruses have certain areas, specifically South and Southeast Asia--think Bangladesh, Southern China, Burma, etc.--where they permanently reside and from whence they surge each year as conditions allow.

[newguy]

Interesting.

Of course, you have to dig in and see what exactly they mean when they say MRNPIs versus what they mean when they say NPI.

One of the control countries they use is South Korea, which while it did not do what they call more restrictive NPIs does have a very strong and strict contact tracing, ban on travel, and isolation of covid positive people.

Reading through it, you could possibly conclude that what they call MRNPI is actually just a half measure and the argument is you've got to go full lock down to achieve any real benefit.

Either all or nothing. Stop dicking around in the middle.

Here's an article from late December about the crisis in South Korea: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/worl ... vel-3.html

TLDR despite no fucks given for privacy or other rights we take for granted, they STILL are fucked.

It's why I though it was weird that they included them as a control group.

I could be mistaken, but it seems like Sweden is the model for a control group. The states is hard because each state is running things so differently. Right now Southern Cali is a bloodbath. We've got some things closed. Some things open.

Given the context of the article, I get what they are saying. What we are doing now, closing some things, leaving some things open....doesn't change anything. Outdoor dining isn't why the numbers exploded. Closing the coffee patio and massage parlor isn't what's going to stop this. Why bother?

All or nothing.

[Fat Cat]

Right now Southern Cali is a bloodbath.

Because you have Mexicans living ten to an apartment. We have the same problem here with other groups that live in close quarters. Perhaps build a wall?

[newguy]

Right now Southern Cali is a bloodbath.

Because you have Mexicans living ten to an apartment. We have the same problem here with other groups that live in close quarters. Perhaps build a wall?

I was surprised to see that our per housing density, or whatever the statistic is, is even higher than New York.

[Fat Cat]

Not in Bel Air it ain’t. Riff raff spread disease.

[baffled]

As a thought experiment, if everyone grabs 3 weeks of food and goes and isolates for 3 weeks, the virus is gone. Finato. Ex post facto. Fuck you forever, virus. Life returns totally to normal.

That's what a hard lockdown approaches. It gets you real close, so you can contact trace and crush any pop-ups.

Our response couldn't be much shittier.

As a thought experiment, what comes of the other viruses, influenza etc? Are we done with all of those, too?

No, and of course nafod has no idea what he's talking about.

We could have 100% lockdown etc. but unless EVERY OTHER COUNTRY ON EARTH does the same, at the same time, it comes right back. Exhibit A: influenza, which comes back every winter. COVID-19 is now endemic and you should anticipate it being around for the rest of your life. Basically, what happens is that these viruses have certain areas, specifically South and Southeast Asia--think Bangladesh, Southern China, Burma, etc.--where they permanently reside and from whence they surge each year as conditions allow.

We're in agreement. I had planned on making fun of nafod for being a retard, but I'm sure I'll have other opportunities.

[nafod]

As a thought experiment, if everyone grabs 3 weeks of food and goes and isolates for 3 weeks, the virus is gone. Finato. Ex post facto. Fuck you forever, virus. Life returns totally to normal.

That's what a hard lockdown approaches. It gets you real close, so you can contact trace and crush any pop-ups.

Our response couldn't be much shittier.

As a thought experiment, what comes of the other viruses, influenza etc? Are we done with all of those, too?

You mean like smallpox? Ebola in america? Yes. If you eradicate it, it is gone.

How are the flu numbers this year, by the way? The same actions for covid work against the flu, but the flu is less contagious, so it is almost non-existent this year.

[nafod]

As a thought experiment, if everyone grabs 3 weeks of food and goes and isolates for 3 weeks, the virus is gone. Finato. Ex post facto. Fuck you forever, virus. Life returns totally to normal.

That's what a hard lockdown approaches. It gets you real close, so you can contact trace and crush any pop-ups.

Our response couldn't be much shittier.

As a thought experiment, what comes of the other viruses, influenza etc? Are we done with all of those, too?

No, and of course nafod has no idea what he's talking about.

We could have 100% lockdown etc. but unless EVERY OTHER COUNTRY ON EARTH does the same, at the same time, it comes right back. Exhibit A: influenza, which comes back every winter. COVID-19 is now endemic and you should anticipate it being around for the rest of your life. Basically, what happens is that these viruses have certain areas, specifically South and Southeast Asia--think Bangladesh, Southern China, Burma, etc.--where they permanently reside and from whence they surge each year as conditions allow.

We're in agreement. I had planned on making fun of nafod for being a retard, but I'm sure I'll have other opportunities.

I knew with"thought experiment" I was taking you guys out of your comfort zone.

[Sangoma]

Nothing works better than just getting rid of it.

As a thought experiment, if everyone grabs 3 weeks of food and goes and isolates for 3 weeks, the virus is gone. Finato. Ex post facto. Fuck you forever, virus. Life returns totally to normal.

Unfortunately thought experiments are thought. This is the whole point of science: to check if what you think should work is, in fact, working in real life.

What this research demonstrates is as follows. Non-pharmacological interventions work to a certain degree. Mild measures work pretty much as well as strict measures. In other words, hard lockdown does not get you close to the ideal situation and does not result in a better outcome.

[nafod]

Nothing works better than just getting rid of it.

As a thought experiment, if everyone grabs 3 weeks of food and goes and isolates for 3 weeks, the virus is gone. Finato. Ex post facto. Fuck you forever, virus. Life returns totally to normal.

Unfortunately thought experiments are thought. This is the whole point of science: to check if what you think should work is, in fact, working in real life.

It's working well in places that control flow of people in and out. Taiwan and New Zealand are the obvious examples.

What this research demonstrates is as follows. Non-pharmacological interventions work to a certain degree. Mild measures work pretty much as well as strict measures. In other words, hard lockdown does not get you close to the ideal situation and does not result in a better outcome.

Yeah, the problem is when people don't comply with the easy NPIs (masks, distancing) it leaves us two bad choices.

[Turdacious]

Nothing works better than just getting rid of it.

As a thought experiment, if everyone grabs 3 weeks of food and goes and isolates for 3 weeks, the virus is gone. Finato. Ex post facto. Fuck you forever, virus. Life returns totally to normal.

Unfortunately thought experiments are thought. This is the whole point of science: to check if what you think should work is, in fact, working in real life.

It's working well in places that control flow of people in and out. Taiwan and New Zealand are the obvious examples.

So now that the orange one is out you've gone full 'build the wall'?

[nafod]

Nothing works better than just getting rid of it.

As a thought experiment, if everyone grabs 3 weeks of food and goes and isolates for 3 weeks, the virus is gone. Finato. Ex post facto. Fuck you forever, virus. Life returns totally to normal.

Unfortunately thought experiments are thought. This is the whole point of science: to check if what you think should work is, in fact, working in real life.

It's working well in places that control flow of people in and out. Taiwan and New Zealand are the obvious examples.

So now that the orange one is out you've gone full 'build the wall'?

Chinese are crossing the Rio Grande in droves?

[Turdacious]

Nothing works better than just getting rid of it.

As a thought experiment, if everyone grabs 3 weeks of food and goes and isolates for 3 weeks, the virus is gone. Finato. Ex post facto. Fuck you forever, virus. Life returns totally to normal.

Unfortunately thought experiments are thought. This is the whole point of science: to check if what you think should work is, in fact, working in real life.

It's working well in places that control flow of people in and out. Taiwan and New Zealand are the obvious examples.

So now that the orange one is out you've gone full 'build the wall'?

Chinese are crossing the Rio Grande in droves?

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... X/fulltext

[nafod]

Nothing works better than just getting rid of it.

As a thought experiment, if everyone grabs 3 weeks of food and goes and isolates for 3 weeks, the virus is gone. Finato. Ex post facto. Fuck you forever, virus. Life returns totally to normal.

Unfortunately thought experiments are thought. This is the whole point of science: to check if what you think should work is, in fact, working in real life.

It's working well in places that control flow of people in and out. Taiwan and New Zealand are the obvious examples.

So now that the orange one is out you've gone full 'build the wall'?

Chinese are crossing the Rio Grande in droves?

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... X/fulltext

Can we get the wall built next week?

[Grandpa's Spells]

It's been pretty well-established that COVID entered the US through airports. Putting inbound travelers in quarantine was hugely successful in the places that did it.

British strain will be the dominant one soon, and is more contagious. Consider investing in PPE if you haven't already. Still dealing with anti-mask idiots or people who are just super careless, so I haven't worn a cloth mask in probably six months. Mostly KN95 or N95, P100 for the bad places.

If there were unlimited N95s, this is 100% what the CDC would recommend. What is recommended in the macro for supply chain reasons has no impact on where you should cap your personal protection.

[Shafpocalypse Now]

Oh the joys of Covid.

If only we had real statistics in the US. Real hard numbers based on real data.

Instead we have cities like Houston whom import Covid patients from other cities in Texas because of the massive hospital system here reporting all the cases as being "Houston" cases. Despite a bunch of them coming in from other places, including prisons.

Instead we have patients whom are incidentally in the hospital for something else testing positive for Covid using a 40 cycle PCR test, and being reported as 'hospitalized with covid'. An example, pregnant lady comes in to give birth, tests positive with zero symptoms, is now hospitalized for covid, not giving birth.

This is going on across the country. So we don't actually know what the actual fuck is going on. This isn't any kind of denialism, I've known several people who have had it, some of them have had it very badly. But there has been fuckery afoot since day zero.

[Alfred_E._Neuman]

Oh the joys of Covid.

If only we had real statistics in the US. Real hard numbers based on real data.

Instead we have cities like Houston whom import Covid patients from other cities in Texas because of the massive hospital system here reporting all the cases as being "Houston" cases. Despite a bunch of them coming in from other places, including prisons.

Instead we have patients whom are incidentally in the hospital for something else testing positive for Covid using a 40 cycle PCR test, and being reported as 'hospitalized with covid'. An example, pregnant lady comes in to give birth, tests positive with zero symptoms, is now hospitalized for covid, not giving birth.

This is going on across the country. So we don't actually know what the actual fuck is going on. This isn't any kind of denialism, I've known several people who have had it, some of them have had it very badly. But there has been fuckery afoot since day zero.

Never underestimate a government or corporation's ability and willingness to turn any emergency, catastrophe, or crisis to their advantage. And understand, this is coming from someone who 100% believes this is a deadly virus that spreads like wildfire.

Our corporate healthcare system will seek to have as many COVID patients as possible so they can get some of that sweet, sweet money.

Our government will do what it does best - spy on us and erase away a little more of our freedoms in the name of "safety". That, and make the problem worse through ineptitude. I'm absolutely shocked that the god damned military industrial complex hasn't found a way to make bank off of this. There has to be some country to invade to protect our liberty. Won't someone think of the children??!!?!?!!?

[Turdacious]

80% of the global PPE supply comes from Asia, dominated by China. We have enough N95s for medical use, but not close to enough for non-medical use. Without laws to give enough preference to domestic manufacturers to ensure regular and surge domestic manufacturing capacity, I don't know how we put ourselves in a position to deal with the next pandemic.

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R46628.pdf

[Alfred_E._Neuman]

"Just In Time" globalization has always been a very fragile way to do any type of business. Doubly so when it's vital medical supplies that the economic engine produces at expected normal consumption rates and is faced with an exponential increase in global demand. This is one of the first real stress tests of JIT globalization, and it has failed spectacularly.