My State Has Gone Full Fucking Clownship

[Bennyonesix1]

From Attia who I dig. Sadly, we're going to find we tortured thousands to death with respirators for no reason.

https://peterattiamd.com/wp-content/upl ... e_-3-1.pdf

Idk why ppl aren't concerned that the entire non-SARs focused health care system is collapsing? What about knock on effects from that?

No matter what ppl say it us a balancing test and we've decided to pay a price down the road. And I find it strange no one in favor of the current approach (not the only one possible) is willing to even attempt to quantify the cost they intend to incur in lives and money or in "blood and treasure" as this same subset screamed in the past about national policy decisions.

For example, they could compare their approach with say spending a trillion in isolating the elderly and those with co-morbidities and letting the rest of us develop herd immunity.

[motherjuggs&speed]

My view is basically that expressed by Peter Hitchens:

[Fat Cat]

Here in Western Australia I’m trying to figure out how we haven’t become known yet as one of the greatest success stories. Today we have only three new cases. Yesterday was 8. Almost all are passengers from cruise ships or return travellers, or close contacts of them. There are “only” 6000 cases in the country and around 60 deaths.

We never went full lockdown, but they started social distancing and working from home pretty early on, which meant businesses closing down almost instantly and many, including me, losing their jobs completely.

They closed the borders to our state from the rest of Australia and have forced 14 day quarantine for anyone and everyone who entered the state. So all of the known cases are also contained and isolated. There is essentially zero community spread here.

Yet they still suggest things will get worse before they get better. But at this point I cannot see how that is possible.

They could keep the borders closed and open up businesses again this week and still keep the majority of social distancing measures in place. Who knows I might even be able to find a job again. But at the moment it doesn’t look like that is going to happen anytime soon.

Even if there was another outbreak here, they now know that another two-week “pause” on normal life would be just about enough to end it.

Very interesting, Luke. I would imagine that the low-density living style you guys have also contributes. Our big Western states have fared much better than the older, higher-density places like New York and Michigan. That and you sent all the chinko students home. Pro-tip: don't let them come back, they're subverting your great nation.

[Turdacious]

Pradeep Shanker has a lot of interesting things to say on this topic.

On the countries that have had the most success against COVID19:

I think this list is useful.
Why?
Because all of these countries fall into 2 groups :
1. Willing to use authoritarian force.
2. Remote.
What you don't see is a country that is heavily traveled by foreigners, even if only as a thorough fare. And also, you don't see very large, diverse countries.

As for authoritarian... Even that may backfire, because it isn't working great in Singapore.
I do wonder if the biggest learning point here for the US is that we should have shut down foreign travel far earlier... Something a lot of public health officials opposed.

[Alfred_E._Neuman]

I do wonder if the biggest learning point here for the US is that we should have shut down foreign travel far earlier... Something a lot of public health officials opposed.

Being "woke" is going to be the end of western civilization as we've known it. We're literally going to sit in the back seat while the 3rd world drives us off a cliff and not say jack shit because we're worried they'll get offended if we call them a bad driver.
Even the mere mention of calling out the Chinese for being underhanded little pricks is met with a woke tsunami. From someone who is a fucking liberal but isn't afraid to stand up for what's right. I'm absolutely fed up with having to play the cultural relativism game. I'm done. There are certain things that are wrong no matter what your culture thinks. Abusing women, killing people for being gay, killing people for not wanting to believe in your particular sky daddy, not stopping exotic animal trade and markets when they're a breeding ground for the next pandemic. God damn it's time to demand the 3rd world grow up and join the 21st century or be basically quarantined until they grow up.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/bill-mahe ... oronavirus

[Fat Cat]

I do wonder if the biggest learning point here for the US is that we should have shut down foreign travel far earlier... Something a lot of public health officials opposed.

Being "woke" is going to be the end of western civilization as we've known it. We're literally going to sit in the back seat while the 3rd world drives us off a cliff and not say jack shit because we're worried they'll get offended if we call them a bad driver.
Even the mere mention of calling out the Chinese for being underhanded little pricks is met with a woke tsunami. From someone who is a fucking liberal but isn't afraid to stand up for what's right. I'm absolutely fed up with having to play the cultural relativism game. I'm done. There are certain things that are wrong no matter what your culture thinks. Abusing women, killing people for being gay, killing people for not wanting to believe in your particular sky daddy, not stopping exotic animal trade and markets when they're a breeding ground for the next pandemic. God damn it's time to demand the 3rd world grow up and join the 21st century or be basically quarantined until they grow up.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/bill-mahe ... oronavirus

Wokeness is an expression of self hatred which is encouraged by a vile, multinational group of rootless cosmopolitans who want you to be an atomized, de-racinated, post-nuclear family dependent of the global homosexual pharmocracy, alone in your crumbling apartment frantically clicking on porn and amazon for dopamine hits between doses of antidepressants. The Chinese refer to these people derogatorily as baizuo ("white left"), loudly flaunting their incoherent boutique morality online as a way to reconcile their own feelings of moral superiority and personal inferiority.

[Alfred_E._Neuman]

Five clappies for you.

[DrDonkeyLove...]

I do wonder if the biggest learning point here for the US is that we should have shut down foreign travel far earlier... Something a lot of public health officials opposed.

Being "woke" is going to be the end of western civilization as we've known it. We're literally going to sit in the back seat while the 3rd world drives us off a cliff and not say jack shit because we're worried they'll get offended if we call them a bad driver.
Even the mere mention of calling out the Chinese for being underhanded little pricks is met with a woke tsunami. From someone who is a fucking liberal but isn't afraid to stand up for what's right. I'm absolutely fed up with having to play the cultural relativism game. I'm done. There are certain things that are wrong no matter what your culture thinks. Abusing women, killing people for being gay, killing people for not wanting to believe in your particular sky daddy, not stopping exotic animal trade and markets when they're a breeding ground for the next pandemic. God damn it's time to demand the 3rd world grow up and join the 21st century or be basically quarantined until they grow up.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/bill-mahe ... oronavirus

Wokeness is an expression of self hatred which is encouraged by a vile, multinational group of rootless cosmopolitans who want you to be an atomized, de-racinated, post-nuclear family dependent of the global homosexual pharmocracy, alone in your crumbling apartment frantically clicking on porn and amazon for dopamine hits between doses of antidepressants. The Chinese refer to these people derogatorily as baizuo ("white left"), loudly flaunting their incoherent boutique morality online as a way to reconcile their own feelings of moral superiority and personal inferiority.

Kaz level.

[Luke]

Here in Western Australia I’m trying to figure out how we haven’t become known yet as one of the greatest success stories. Today we have only three new cases. Yesterday was 8. Almost all are passengers from cruise ships or return travellers, or close contacts of them. There are “only” 6000 cases in the country and around 60 deaths.

We never went full lockdown, but they started social distancing and working from home pretty early on, which meant businesses closing down almost instantly and many, including me, losing their jobs completely.

They closed the borders to our state from the rest of Australia and have forced 14 day quarantine for anyone and everyone who entered the state. So all of the known cases are also contained and isolated. There is essentially zero community spread here.

Yet they still suggest things will get worse before they get better. But at this point I cannot see how that is possible.

They could keep the borders closed and open up businesses again this week and still keep the majority of social distancing measures in place. Who knows I might even be able to find a job again. But at the moment it doesn’t look like that is going to happen anytime soon.

Even if there was another outbreak here, they now know that another two-week “pause” on normal life would be just about enough to end it.

Very interesting, Luke. I would imagine that the low-density living style you guys have also contributes. Our big Western states have fared much better than the older, higher-density places like New York and Michigan. That and you sent all the chinko students home. Pro-tip: don't let them come back, they're subverting your great nation.

East coast Luke here:
My friend works in emergency at a major Sydney hospital. Never been more bored apparently. No patients to hand over at the end of shifts and very quiet. Other sources tell me at that hospital there's like 3 cases in ICU. The talk among management there is that we've effectively rounded off the crisis atm and the health system has avoided the much-feared over burdening.

I don't know how that will shape policy. I agree with Luke in the sense I don't understand how it could peak again with everything so tamped down.

Virtually all of our cases stemmed from cruise ship passengers and foreign backpackers.

[Luke]

Virtually all of our cases stemmed from cruise ship passengers and foreign backpackers. The CBD where I worked was teeming with cruise ship passengers in the weeks leading up to the shutdown. You could absolutely tell them apart from the normal citizenry. Given a lot of the intel - far, far more people should be choking right now.

I can't make heads or tails of this: Did we do such a good job that everything's benign? Did it not warrant such measures for the majority of the population in the first place? Does the geography and density truly make a difference and could this be a guiding principle going forward? Does anyone truly know the first thing about this?

[Fat Cat]

Speaking of Australian doctors, where's Sangoma?

[Bennyonesix1]

Virtually all of our cases stemmed from cruise ship passengers and foreign backpackers. The CBD where I worked was teeming with cruise ship passengers in the weeks leading up to the shutdown. You could absolutely tell them apart from the normal citizenry. Given a lot of the intel - far, far more people should be choking right now.

I can't make heads or tails of this: Did we do such a good job that everything's benign? Did it not warrant such measures for the majority of the population in the first place? Does the geography and density truly make a difference and could this be a guiding principle going forward? Does anyone truly know the first thing about this?

No one knows anything about this. Or almost nothing. Infectiousness unknown. Mortality rate unknown. Mechanism of infection unknown. How many have and have had it is unknown. How it causes the cytokine storm is unknown. Why are some seemingly unaffected and others crushed? When it started is unknown. When it left China is unknown. How did it get into humans? Is venting an effective treatment? Is HCQ an effective treatment? Is Ivermectin effective?

One thing we do know is that the mortality rate has been decreasing constantly over time. And that despite the expansion of what constitutes a death from SARS2.

The models were nothing more than pre-prepared arguments for adopting the worst case scenario and most draconian mitigation efforts possible. In the beginning, it was impossible to make a counter-argument as it could have been an effective bio-weapon. And the anti-body tests weren't available to determine total number of infected and thus quantify the mortality rate. But it quickly became clear it wasn't anything worthy of economic shutdown.

[newguy]

The models were nothing more than pre-prepared arguments for adopting the worst case scenario and most draconian mitigation efforts possible. In the beginning, it was impossible to make a counter-argument as it could have been an effective bio-weapon. And the anti-body tests weren't available to determine total number of infected and thus quantify the mortality rate. But it quickly became clear it wasn't anything worthy of economic shutdown.

Looking at the worse hit areas, New York....Italy....etc.,

Do you think that taking the strongest measures possible to prevent those situations was an error?

[nafod]

No one knows anything about this. Or almost nothing. Infectiousness unknown. Mortality rate unknown.

We have good, hard data now that says if you do nothing and life goes on as normal, that deaths lag infections by about two weeks, and that the number of deaths doubles twice weekly.

We also have hard data on what social distancing does to that doubling rate.

That's actionable intelligence while we figure the rest out.

[nafod]

The models were nothing more than pre-prepared arguments for adopting the worst case scenario and most draconian mitigation efforts possible. In the beginning, it was impossible to make a counter-argument as it could have been an effective bio-weapon. And the anti-body tests weren't available to determine total number of infected and thus quantify the mortality rate. But it quickly became clear it wasn't anything worthy of economic shutdown.

Looking at the worse hit areas, New York....Italy....etc.,

Do you think that taking the strongest measures possible to prevent those situations was an error?

I think the error was in not doing them sooner. The sooner you start, the sooner you finish. We waited too long.

[Bennyonesix1]

No one knows anything about this. Or almost nothing. Infectiousness unknown. Mortality rate unknown.

We have good, hard data now that says if you do nothing and life goes on as normal, that deaths lag infections by about two weeks, and that the number of deaths doubles twice weekly.

We also have hard data on what social distancing does to that doubling rate.

That's actionable intelligence while we figure the rest out.

We absolutely do not have any of that info. You are piling assumption upon assumption. You may be correct. I doubt it personally. But we do not "know" a single thing you claimed we know. We know almost nothing about this virus or when it got here or how many have it or have had it. Or what the R0 is.

Jesus dude we don't even know if intubation and ventilation are effective. Or if it is a blood disease. Or how it is transmitted.

We know it hasn't gone exponential anywhere and that we did massive social lockdown. But that is mere correlation. It may be correct but it isn't causation.

For example, is Italy just a shit medical system re: the flu? Probably but maybe not. We just don't know if their uniquely bad outcomes were due to the nature of SARS2 or just being Italian about medical care.

https://www.ijidonline.com/action/showP ... 19)30328-5

[nafod]

No one knows anything about this. Or almost nothing. Infectiousness unknown. Mortality rate unknown.

We have good, hard data now that says if you do nothing and life goes on as normal, that deaths lag infections by about two weeks, and that the number of deaths doubles twice weekly.

We also have hard data on what social distancing does to that doubling rate.

That's actionable intelligence while we figure the rest out.

We absolutely do not have any of that info.

https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID ... ly_reports

[Bennyonesix1]

The models were nothing more than pre-prepared arguments for adopting the worst case scenario and most draconian mitigation efforts possible. In the beginning, it was impossible to make a counter-argument as it could have been an effective bio-weapon. And the anti-body tests weren't available to determine total number of infected and thus quantify the mortality rate. But it quickly became clear it wasn't anything worthy of economic shutdown.

Looking at the worse hit areas, New York....Italy....etc.,

Do you think that taking the strongest measures possible to prevent those situations was an error?

Not for the first two weeks or so. And I would have done more if it were possible during that time: end interstate travel, end any travel into the US, total quarantine on any city with sig outbreak.

"The dose makes the poison"

But it can't last for structural economic reasons and it won't. Luckily, it isn't as close to as bad as the experts argued.

[Bennyonesix1]

No one knows anything about this. Or almost nothing. Infectiousness unknown. Mortality rate unknown.

We have good, hard data now that says if you do nothing and life goes on as normal, that deaths lag infections by about two weeks, and that the number of deaths doubles twice weekly.

We also have hard data on what social distancing does to that doubling rate.

That's actionable intelligence while we figure the rest out.

We absolutely do not have any of that info.

https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID ... ly_reports

What's the R0? What is the means of infection? How many have the disease now? How many have had the disease? When did it get here? How close are we to herd immunity?

[nafod]

No one knows anything about this. Or almost nothing. Infectiousness unknown. Mortality rate unknown.

We have good, hard data now that says if you do nothing and life goes on as normal, that deaths lag infections by about two weeks, and that the number of deaths doubles twice weekly.

We also have hard data on what social distancing does to that doubling rate.

That's actionable intelligence while we figure the rest out.

We absolutely do not have any of that info.

https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID ... ly_reports

What's the R0? What is the means of infection? How many have the disease now? How many have had the disease? When did it get here? How close are we to herd immunity?

R0 is unknown, what is known is the doubling rate of deaths (twice per week) if you do nothing, and that social distancing will reduce that to a constant growth rate. The number of infected would also follow that doubling rate, although we don't know what it started at. Until we get up in the high percentages of infected, like 30-40%, then the population is basically a bottomless pit of virus homes to be settled and it doesn't really matter whether R0 is low but there's a ton of asymptomatics, or it is high but fewer actual carriers.

Herd immunity? We are NOWHERE NEAR CLOSE anywhere is my JMHO judgement.

[Bennyonesix1]

Again, we do not know social distancing worked. We know it coincided with a decrease in deaths. We don't know what the background state was and without that context one can't say where the causation lay.

As a matter of logic, one cannot have a high R0 and have the virus get here in March.

So, high R0 = more background infections = higher % req for herd immun. Low R0 = converse.

But we can't say anything until the anti-body testing covers enough regions and ppl.

[Fat Cat]

Again, we do not know social distancing worked. We know it coincided with a decrease in deaths. We don't know what the background state was and without that context one can't say where the causation lay.

As a matter of logic, one cannot have a high R0 and have the virus get here in March.

So, high R0 = more background infections = higher % req for herd immun. Low R0 = converse.

But we can't say anything until the anti-body testing covers enough regions and ppl.

Excellent point. Ignorant people bleat about MUH SCIENCE but don't actually understand how tests and measures work or just how un-scientific many of the measures currently in place are.

[nafod]

Again, we do not know social distancing worked. We know it coincided with a decrease in deaths.

I agree we're pretending correlation = causation, but its a known technique for respiratory viruses since the Romans.

[Bennyonesix1]

Sure. And the issue isn't whether physical distancing and quarantines work. They do. The issue is: did the physical distancing achieve anything beneficial in this specific instance?

Since we don't know where we were in the course of spread in March, the lockdown may have been detrimental if we were close to herd immunity. I think the western States had achieved herd immunity prior to the lockdown.

But who knows? We won't for a few more weeks.

[nafod]

Sure. And the issue isn't whether physical distancing and quarantines work. They do. The I think the western States had achieved herd immunity prior to the lockdown.

Oh lord no, that’s my opinion. But if/when we get the antibody tests, I’ll be glad to eat my words if true.

Would love to find out I had it already.