Prediction time

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Re: Prediction time

Post by milosz » Mon Nov 14, 2016 9:17 pm

Shafpocalypse Now wrote:Here's my reasoning on assassination attempts...the left leaning have always been far more eager to kill for their credos. The sheer density of murder in the name of Communism in the 20th century staggers the imagination.
Only one of our assassins has been a 'Communist' and odds are Lee Harvey was more mentally ill than ideologically committed.

Anarchists, of which there are essentially nil in contemporary America, did their share of assassination as asymmetrical warfare/'propaganda of the deed' but I wouldn't say that the era of Leon Czolgosz has any relevance today.

If you just want to talk assassination-slash-regime change (Stalinist and Maoist deaths not being particularly relevant to assassination), globally it's about the same. Plenty of right-wing military coups (some of them even independent of the CIA) and assassinations to go around from Spain to Greece to Chile to etc. etc. etc..

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Re: Prediction time

Post by powerlifter54 » Mon Nov 14, 2016 9:22 pm

milosz wrote:
Testiclaw wrote: Dean had the right idea for the 50-state strategy.

The campaign chairs and DNC should be bulldozed after this election.

I still can't believe his "fall from grace" was a yell.
The proposed candidates for DNC chair mostly appear to be rather different from the Clintonistas of this cycle. Dean would be a smart choice because they don't need a Congressman running things when not working and campaigning, they need someone whose full-time job is being the Chair.

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Re: Prediction time

Post by dead man walking » Mon Nov 14, 2016 9:41 pm

donald will grant asylum to fellow pussy grabber julian assange.

his rationale is simple: acting like a man does not make you a criminal
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Re: Prediction time

Post by Sangoma » Mon Nov 14, 2016 11:03 pm

Mario, can you lock these posts so no editing can be done later? Let's check notes at the time of the next election.

As to my own predictions - I don't follow politics and know very little of it. I expect the US$ to strengthen and am generally bullish on Dow Jones and Nasdaq. Other than that - I think nothing major is going to happen. I leave the possibility for some sort of financial collapse that can happen as the result of various deregulation policies that I would expect from the businessman Trump though.
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Re: Prediction time

Post by Sangoma » Mon Nov 14, 2016 11:08 pm

milosz wrote: Only one of our assassins has been a 'Communist' and odds are Lee Harvey was more mentally ill than ideologically committed.
This warrants the thread of its own, as there are lot and lots of holes in the whole of JFK assassination saga. Mentally unstable chap joins the Marines where he is cleared to handle classified information. Learns Russian sufficiently to pass the proficiency exam (graded as "poor") Then he gets a visa to USSR and stays there for two years. Then changes his mind and goes back home. Replace USSR of those times with North Korea of our day - which pretty much describes the relationship of those states in the 1960-s - and the story gets at leas a little suspicious.
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Re: Prediction time

Post by dead man walking » Tue Nov 15, 2016 12:44 am

foreign leaders are going to press donald on climate. his benighted denial won't fly in europe. don't know about china.
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Re: Prediction time

Post by milosz » Tue Nov 15, 2016 12:48 am

Not much they can do that wouldn't play well for him - trade war? Damned furriners hurtin America.

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Re: Prediction time

Post by Sangoma » Tue Nov 15, 2016 1:20 am

Trump is a businessman and will see the potential of the weather business.
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Re: Prediction time

Post by milosz » Tue Nov 15, 2016 1:32 am

He's not a good businessman, though. Even if you want to skip the bankruptcies and taxpayer giveaways, he'd be worth more had he put Daddy's money into index funds.

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Re: Prediction time

Post by Turdacious » Tue Nov 15, 2016 4:24 am

dead man walking wrote:foreign leaders are going to press donald on climate. his benighted denial won't fly in europe. don't know about china.
They care more about trade and keeping African borders closed than climate, and a trade deal with the UK is a huge wild card.
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Re: Prediction time

Post by dead man walking » Tue Nov 15, 2016 1:34 pm

what have the brits got to trade?

marmite.
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Re: Prediction time

Post by nafod » Tue Nov 15, 2016 3:15 pm

...a telephone call Monday between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, during which they agreed that relations between their countries were “unsatisfactory” and vowed to work together to improve them, the Kremlin said in a statement.
Oh good, a Russian Reset. BTDT?

Heh
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Re: Prediction time

Post by dead man walking » Tue Nov 15, 2016 10:06 pm

dead man walking wrote:foreign leaders are going to press donald on climate. his benighted denial won't fly in europe. don't know about china.
you brain-damaged cuckolds should listen to me:
French president Francois Hollande says that the US must respect their commitments made under the Paris Climate Agreement.
Speaking at climate talks in Marrakech, Mr Hollande said that the pact was irreversible "in law and in fact".
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Re: Prediction time

Post by Sangoma » Tue Nov 15, 2016 10:42 pm

milosz wrote:He's not a good businessman, though. Even if you want to skip the bankruptcies and taxpayer giveaways, he'd be worth more had he put Daddy's money into index funds.
Milosz, I don't mean to insult you, but those who mention bankruptcies as indication of bad business don't understand what they are talking about. Declaring bankruptcy is used for the plethora of reasons, besides a straightforward financial loss. In example, you built a block of flats and sold them, and the owners want to sue you for something. Very often declaring bankruptcy is cheaper, especially when your money is spread among endless subsidiaries and trusts (as any reasonable businessman would structure it). In other words, bankruptcy is part of big business.

As far as his business forays are concerned, it is always easy to type the numbers into the spreadsheet and come up with the beautiful hindsight of what should have been done. Again, I know nothing about your business experience, but most of the time such remarks are made by people who never put their own money on the line. There is another point everyone forgets when playing with spreadsheets - there are taxes and living expenses along the lines, not only starting and finishing numbers. I know it is alleged Trump managed not to pay taxes for many of his ventures; if it is true I have even more respect for his business practices.
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Re: Prediction time

Post by Grandpa's Spells » Tue Nov 15, 2016 10:53 pm

Sangoma wrote:
milosz wrote:He's not a good businessman, though. Even if you want to skip the bankruptcies and taxpayer giveaways, he'd be worth more had he put Daddy's money into index funds.
Milosz, I don't mean to insult you, but those who mention bankruptcies as indication of bad business don't understand what they are talking about.
Don't be an imbecile.
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Re: Prediction time

Post by milosz » Tue Nov 15, 2016 11:03 pm

Trump repeatedly filed bankruptcy because he took on too much high-interest debt and was unable to turn properties into profitable ventures to pay the debt, often diluting his wealth and ownership in the process. He didn't do it to protect himself from vengeful tenants.

This is like saying that someone who runs up $80k in credit card debt and goes insolvent was just being smart - hey, if they can survive afterward it's not my problem but I'm probably not hiring that guy to do my bookkeeping.

Beyond that, this comes down to the concept of a 'good businessman' - a good businessman doesn't just make money for himself, any gangster or crook can do that. A good businessman... builds businesses. Whether that's a local convenience store or a multinational corporation.

Trump has consistently failed to do so - he's a con artist who only barely maintained wealth for himself by screwing everyone around him, who parlayed 1980s Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous fantasies into a brand for aspirational yokels. He's Master P for rural and suburban whites instead of urban black kids. Worse, he wasn't even particularly good at it - he could have been far wealthier letting smarter people handle his inherited wealth - he managed to wind up poorer than was possible while simultaneously screwing over people and taxpayers via subsidies. That's the worst of all worlds - if you're going to be a grifter, be a quality grifter. It's the Dick Cheney rule - you might be evil but at least it's a competent evil. I can respect competent evil while still hoping for a massive coronary.

If one is going to idolize him for the business acumen of dodging taxes and taking advantage of the system, one must apply that everywhere ie 'welfare cheats' are just getting theirs, so it must be good business. I'm somewhat comfortable with that - our society is born of conflict so if you can beat the system, beat the system - it's the system's job to catch you and punish you. I, of course, want that pursuit and punishment meted out equitably.

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Re: Prediction time

Post by DrDonkeyLove » Wed Nov 16, 2016 12:35 am

Shafpocalypse Now wrote:The nation will remain divided, the Dems will continue to foster the racial divides by encouraging people to hate white men.
Most specifically Christian southern cisgendered straight white men.

Regardless of who's in charge, the downslope and lack of national cohesion continues. Bluemerica vs. Redmerica death match.
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Re: Prediction time

Post by dead man walking » Wed Nov 16, 2016 1:11 am

DrDonkeyLove wrote:
Shafpocalypse Now wrote:The nation will remain divided, the Dems will continue to foster the racial divides by encouraging people to hate white men.
Most specifically Christian southern cisgendered straight white men.

Regardless of who's in charge, the downslope and lack of national cohesion continues. Bluemerica vs. Redmerica death match.
dems foster racial tension?

who is responsible for laws that would restrict voting, notably among blacks?

are the dems encouraging white cops to shoot blacks when confrontations occur?

who is flaunting confederate flags?

have dems been instructing cab drivers not to pick up black passengers?

the kkk is planning a victory parade for donald--are you telling me dems are behind that?

the statement that dems are responsible for racial strife is nonsense
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Re: Prediction time

Post by Sangoma » Wed Nov 16, 2016 1:17 am

milosz wrote:Trump repeatedly filed bankruptcy because he took on too much high-interest debt and was unable to turn properties into profitable ventures to pay the debt, often diluting his wealth and ownership in the process. He didn't do it to protect himself from vengeful tenants.
If you look into the practices of very successful businessman you will notice one common thing: taking excessive risks. Most of them don't get away with it, and we never hear of them, but those who do - effectively playing Russian roulette - become the icons for the followers. So that's what you do - take a risk, fail, deal with the consequences, take another one and so on, until you succeed. Mind you, big business (really big) and ethics don't go together most of the time, but all the Western culture is about the money, even though we try to pretend it's not. Not that I am admiring Trump, but I have respect for people in the field who achieved something.
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Re: Prediction time

Post by milosz » Wed Nov 16, 2016 1:30 am

What did he achieve? That's the entire point - his business ventures are essentially all failures.

You're talking about Steve Jobs, who won (early Apple), lost massively (Lisa and the Mac), lost (NeXT, perhaps a planned loss) then won (NeXT being sold to Apple), then won big twice (Pixar and the resurgent Apple). Possibly more of a narcissistic sociopath than even Trump, Jobs's legacy is one of massive overall success and wealth creation. He was a good businessman. Trump is a reality show host who brags about himself.

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Re: Prediction time

Post by Grandpa's Spells » Wed Nov 16, 2016 1:54 am

Sangoma wrote:
milosz wrote:Trump repeatedly filed bankruptcy because he took on too much high-interest debt and was unable to turn properties into profitable ventures to pay the debt, often diluting his wealth and ownership in the process. He didn't do it to protect himself from vengeful tenants.
If you look into the practices of very successful businessman you will notice one common thing: taking excessive risks.
This is a myth. Risk mitigation is the metric of success. Trump also did not ultimately succeed. He tread water while those he took with him drowned.
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Re: Prediction time

Post by DrDonkeyLove » Wed Nov 16, 2016 2:22 am

dead man walking wrote:
DrDonkeyLove wrote:
Shafpocalypse Now wrote:The nation will remain divided, the Dems will continue to foster the racial divides by encouraging people to hate white men.
Most specifically Christian southern cisgendered straight white men.

Regardless of who's in charge, the downslope and lack of national cohesion continues. Bluemerica vs. Redmerica death match.
dems foster racial tension?

who is responsible for laws that would restrict voting, notably among blacks?

are the dems encouraging white cops to shoot blacks when confrontations occur?

who is flaunting confederate flags?

have dems been instructing cab drivers not to pick up black passengers?

the kkk is planning a victory parade for donald--are you telling me dems are behind that?

the statement that dems are responsible for racial strife is nonsense
Regarding confederate flags, I spent the day crossing deep red state South Carolina by car. Went from Charleston to Columbia, and up to Charlotte, NC on highways and two lane roads. Even spent some time at a historically black university.

I hadn't thought about it until this second but I didn't see a single Confederate flag or even a bumper sticker.

All racial interactions were friendly and respectful including mixed-race couples who seemed happy and comfortable. Saw lots of black professionals and talked to a black professor of something scientifical that I'm sure I wouldn't understand. The only political talk I heard was an older white woman at a bar last night complaining about Trump.

In fact, I saw far more mixed race groups of socializing co-workers than I ever see in the north.

Not sure what it all means but consider it an anthropological red state report from the field.

Has dialed back my gloom meter a little bid.
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Re: Prediction time

Post by milosz » Wed Nov 16, 2016 2:27 am

I'm curious how many successful businessmen got nailed for fraud and racketeering.

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Re: Prediction time

Post by dead man walking » Wed Nov 16, 2016 2:28 am

i mentioned the flag because i recalled seeing the story about the off-duty cop with a flag driving around protesters--that was in michigan

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