Why Trump won

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Andy83
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Why Trump won

Post by Andy83 » Wed Nov 16, 2016 4:30 pm

I watched the movie "Patton" again. Took notice of the speech in opening. Trump has that same driving thrust approach and never giving up embedded in his very being. He will carry that with him into whatever he wants to do. Like a military battle. For example, if he wants to control the world oil supply for the US etc. etc. etc. America will be great again! He'll do it folks. Never doubt him and try to stop him.
Ha! The Clintons had the election rigged....The Donald out-rigged them.
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Re: Why Trump won

Post by milosz » Wed Nov 16, 2016 5:00 pm

Trump won because less than a hundred thousand people in a few areas who made up their minds at the last minute voted for him. His support is actually quite soft even in those areas - 40% of the country might be willing to give him a pass on anything but another 5-8% will jump off the bus at the first sign of trouble if he gets plagued by scandal or a bad economy.

The idea that this was a juggernaut election should look silly to anyone capable of basic arithmetic.

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Re: Why Trump won

Post by Andy83 » Wed Nov 16, 2016 5:20 pm

He knows all that but He will always win in the end. Like making a bad economy good again.
Obama's narcissism and arrogance is only superseded by his naivete and stupidity.

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Re: Why Trump won

Post by Andy83 » Wed Nov 16, 2016 5:42 pm

Are you sure that those percentages are accurate? Basic arithmetic?? Where did you get those? New York Times??? Watch that you don't end up eating at seeahill's crow eating buffets with the Clintons.
Obama's narcissism and arrogance is only superseded by his naivete and stupidity.

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Re: Why Trump won

Post by climber511 » Wed Nov 16, 2016 8:35 pm

Why did Trump Win? Because in the end more people hated HRC than hated Trump - but I have little doubt both candidates were considered toxic by most. The amount of hate, fear and "I'm less evil than my opponent " I don't think gave anybody the warm fuzzys about the future. But time will tell of course - the Repubs now control all branches and have four years to accomplish "something" or next election cycle - they will be out - they have no excuses now. Just because Trump won does not mean the "people" aren't still fed up with the world inside the beltway over there. Other than who's the president - life pretty much still goes on with business as usual.

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Re: Why Trump won

Post by milosz » Wed Nov 16, 2016 9:26 pm

One small point - a larger number of people hated Trump more than HRC. More people in lower-populated states with an Electoral College advantage hated Trump less.

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Re: Why Trump won

Post by climber511 » Wed Nov 16, 2016 10:20 pm

milosz wrote:One small point - a larger number of people hated Trump more than HRC. More people in lower-populated states with an Electoral College advantage hated Trump less.
Agreed - I was just too lazy to make the distinction. I still have trouble wrapping my head around the fact that in a nation of how ever many people we had - these two floated to the top like the turds they are.

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Re: Why Trump won

Post by Alfred_E._Neuman » Thu Nov 17, 2016 1:10 am

climber511 wrote:I still have trouble wrapping my head around the fact that in a nation of how ever many people we had - these two floated to the top like the turds they are.
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Re: Why Trump won

Post by powerlifter54 » Thu Nov 17, 2016 1:28 am

A few reasons. Historians will have to set percents as the smoke clears.

1. She was a terrible candidate. She is as approachable and likable as any bitter ex wife. She has a grating speaking voice. She is either colossally stupid or purposefully ignorant of Classified Information Rules. She is obsessed with money. She is paranoid of getting caught breaking the law. She is a bitch to her staff. Anybody they ran would have given Trump a better race. But it was her turn, and the left wouldn't turn their backs. Smart move.

2. She bore the brunt of all the Obama policies and lies. For some reason, some people give him a pass on lying about Obamacare costs and keeping your doctor, Rogue Agents in Cincinnati, videos causing the Benghazi attack, and shovel ready jobs. People like the guy but at some point enough realized we were getting played. Hello Hilliary.

3.Her legal troubles, constantly changing stories, and the Bill/AG meeting was an optic that got traction. This was all easily avoidable.

4. BLM and their ilk destroying cities and blocking traffic with no action. This doesn't play well in the area between the Northeast Corridor and the West Coast. You know, the overwhelmingly red areas of the US.

5. The campaign and the media kept repeating that the Empresses' clothes were incredible and her administration was going to be incredible and they had the best ground game and an insurmountable EC lead and tons of money. They got lazy in their polling, they targeted the wrong places, and she just wasn't up for the kind of maniacal campaigning it takes in the end to close the deal. Math.

6. Years of the incredible arrogance of the left as they worked hard to make anything they disagreed with labelled as racism, sexism, homophobia, xenophobia, or fascism. Payback time.

So she lost. Ding Dong the Witch is Dead.

Touchdown.
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Re: Why Trump won

Post by milosz » Thu Nov 17, 2016 2:02 am

Which cities did BLM destroy?

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Re: Why Trump won

Post by Fuzzy Dunlop » Thu Nov 17, 2016 5:27 am

milosz wrote:Which cities did BLM destroy?
Suppose we could start with Baltimore
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Re: Why Trump won

Post by vern » Thu Nov 17, 2016 8:04 am

“Wherever the crowd goes, run the other direction. They’re always wrong.” Bukowski

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Re: Why Trump won

Post by tonkadtx » Thu Nov 17, 2016 1:47 pm

Which cities did BLM destroy?
Destroy might be too strong a word. But there were riots in Milwaukee, Charlotte, Cincy, Daytona,etc. While I agree with some parts of their platform. Not a good visual for middle America.

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Re: Why Trump won

Post by powerlifter54 » Thu Nov 17, 2016 2:36 pm

i apologize for answering why Hilliary lost.

Trump won because of Immigration, Trade, America First, and Jobs. His smaller and smarter staff didn't helped, as did his refusal to play the Democrat Game of Republican's not answering criticism and refusing to criticize opponents personally. Ask Mitt.
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Re: Why Trump won

Post by Turdacious » Thu Nov 17, 2016 4:04 pm

milosz wrote:Which cities did BLM destroy?
Destroy is probably not the right word, but it's hard to deny the localized impact of protests.
The average selling price of a home in the city has been on a steady decline since the shooting of Brown last August, according to housing data compiled from MARIS, an information and statistics service for real estate agents. Prior to Brown’s death, the average home sold in 2014 was selling for $66,764. For the last three and a half months of the year, the average home sold for $36,168, a 46 percent decrease.

The trend has continued on through this year, with the average home selling for only $22,951 so far in 2015. Another negative indicator: in the eight and a half months leading up to Brown’s death, the average residential square foot in 2014 was selling for $45.82. In the eight and a half months since Brown’s passing, the average residential square foot in the city has sold for $24.11. That’s about a 47 percent downtick in one of real estate’s core indicators.
http://fusion.net/story/104184/ferguson ... -the-pain/

To be fair, there are other ways to look at the impact: http://www.realtor.com/news/trends/ferg ... e-rebound/
Also: http://www.zillow.com/ferguson-mo/home-values/
My guess is that there's significant gentrification going on-- poor locals are more likely to be forced out rather than gain upward mobility (Washington DC is probably the best example).
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Re: Why Trump won

Post by dead man walking » Thu Nov 17, 2016 4:45 pm

powerlifter54 wrote:i apologize for answering why Hilliary lost.

Trump won because of Immigration, Trade, America First, and Jobs.
while i don't buy everything you said about hillary and her loss, this makes sense to me.

i think he may be wrong about the trade/america first/jobs triad. perhaps we'll find out.
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Re: Why Trump won

Post by powerlifter54 » Thu Nov 17, 2016 5:05 pm

dead man walking wrote:
powerlifter54 wrote:i apologize for answering why Hilliary lost.

Trump won because of Immigration, Trade, America First, and Jobs.
while i don't buy everything you said about hillary and her loss, this makes sense to me.

i think he may be wrong about the trade/america first/jobs triad. perhaps we'll find out.
My estimate is your guess and my guess probably are good brackets of possibility to be the actual facts. What we agree on is probably worth noting.
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Re: Why Trump won

Post by dead man walking » Thu Nov 17, 2016 5:46 pm

would you agree it makes sense to start with infrastructure projects? local jobs and mostly local supply. (can they specify u.s. steel for beams and rebar and stuff like that?)

trade seems much tougher. we can't withdraw from the global economy, and walmart and target needs to stock their shelves and all the boys and girls need computers and a new phone every year.
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Re: Why Trump won

Post by milosz » Thu Nov 17, 2016 8:59 pm

tonkadtx wrote:
Which cities did BLM destroy?
Destroy might be too strong a word. But there were riots in Milwaukee, Charlotte, Cincy, Daytona,etc. While I agree with some parts of their platform. Not a good visual for middle America.
That was what I was going for - destroyed is simply incorrect. There were riots, but there were more demonstrations without violence - but even the riots didn't destroy cities. Some people see a group of largely black people demonstrating and it automatically becomes a riot and that automatically equates to wanton destruction of entire cities.

That's not reality, that's a narrative fostered by one's internalized views.

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Re: Why Trump won

Post by Turdacious » Thu Nov 17, 2016 9:14 pm

dead man walking wrote:would you agree it makes sense to start with infrastructure projects? local jobs and mostly local supply. (can they specify u.s. steel for beams and rebar and stuff like that?)
Infrastructure projects used to be pretty labor intensive (FDR era) but now they're so capital intensive the projects don't really create many jobs at all. Also, in practice at least, the projects are generally pork.
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Re: Why Trump won

Post by powerlifter54 » Thu Nov 17, 2016 9:20 pm

dead man walking wrote:would you agree it makes sense to start with infrastructure projects? local jobs and mostly local supply. (can they specify u.s. steel for beams and rebar and stuff like that?)

trade seems much tougher. we can't withdraw from the global economy, and walmart and target needs to stock their shelves and all the boys and girls need computers and a new phone every year.
This way out of my area of expertise, but i would agree with you. I heard an argument today that Trump should focus on enforcing current border and immigration laws, start pushing on trade deals, and make some foreign policy initiatives, and save the publics works projects for if we have an economic slowdown. Of course this presenter assumes we have been in a period of economic growth for the Obama administration. My Navy experience is when you come in get some good attention getting victories and get the low hanging fruit. It also says get a great staff and make your goals clear along with the understanding if you cross me you are gone. Disagreement is fine and ahead of the game even heroic. Disloyalty is not. Then get out of the way and let them do their jobs.

I think getting all that offshore corporate money back here, getting the pipelines built ( i actually think there is a lot of win in updating and mapping all that we already have), talking up Natural Gas, canceling all those Obama Executive orders, Obamacare replacement, and nominating for Scalia's seat is a pretty good 100 days.

I have no illusions of Democrat buy in. Just not the way the game is played.
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Re: Why Trump won

Post by Alfred_E._Neuman » Thu Nov 17, 2016 11:38 pm

Turdacious wrote:
dead man walking wrote:would you agree it makes sense to start with infrastructure projects? local jobs and mostly local supply. (can they specify u.s. steel for beams and rebar and stuff like that?)
Infrastructure projects used to be pretty labor intensive (FDR era) but now they're so capital intensive the projects don't really create many jobs at all. Also, in practice at least, the projects are generally pork.
I look at the promised coal jobs much the same way. Taking away the fact that nat gas is cheaper and cleaner, and various renewables are approaching grid parity even without subsidies, opening the taps on coal is not going to magically create 10k jobs in the Appalachians. Minings isn't 500 guys going down with picks and shovels anymore, it's a few guys running earth movers and removing the mountains, a few more guys driving dump trucks of coal out, then putting the remnants of the mountain back.
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Re: Why Trump won

Post by powerlifter54 » Fri Nov 18, 2016 2:11 am

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/cli ... ce7aa8b861
WASHINGTON ― In the closing weeks of the presidential campaign, Hillary Clinton’s staff in key Midwest states sent out alarms to their headquarters in Brooklyn. They were facing a problematic shortage of paid canvassers to help turn out the vote.

For months, the Clinton campaign had banked on a wide army of volunteer organizers to help corral independents and Democratic leaners and re-energize a base not particularly enthused about the election. But they were volunteers. And as anecdotal data came back to offices in key battlegrounds, concern mounted that leadership had skimped on a critical campaign function.

“It was arrogance, arrogance that they were going to win. That this was all wrapped up,” a senior battleground state operative told The Huffington Post.

Several theories have been proffered to explain just what went wrong for the Clinton campaign in an election that virtually everyone expected the Democratic nominee to win. But lost in the discussion is a simple explanation, one that was re-emphasized to HuffPost in interviews with several high-ranking officials and state-based organizers: The Clinton campaign was harmed by its own neglect.

In Michigan alone, a senior battleground state operative told HuffPost that the state party and local officials were running at roughly one-tenth the paid canvasser capacity that Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) had when he ran for president in 2004. Desperate for more human capital, the state party and local officials ended up raising $300,000 themselves to pay 500 people to help canvass in the election’s closing weeks. By that point, however, they were operating in the dark. One organizer said that in a precinct in Flint, they were sent to a burned down trailer park. No one had taken it off the list of places to visit because no one had been there until the final weekend. Clinton lost the state by 12,000 votes.

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Think about how much attention Clinton lavished on Flint. She got 26K fewer votes than Obama. She lost MI by 12,000 https://twitter.com/speechboy71/status/ ... 8933725184
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A similar situation unfolded in Wisconsin. According to several operatives there, the campaign’s state office and local officials scrambled to raise nearly $1 million for efforts to get out the vote in the closing weeks. Brooklyn headquarters had balked at funding it themselves, arguing that the state already had a decent-sized footprint because of the labor-backed super PAC For Our Future and pointing out that Clinton had never trailed in a single poll in Wisconsin.

The campaign’s state office argued additionally for prominent African-American surrogates to help in Milwaukee. “There are only so many times you can get folks excited about Chelsea Clinton,” explained one Wisconsin Democrat. But President Barack Obama and first lady Michelle Obama didn’t come. Nor did Hillary Clinton after the July Democratic convention. She would go on to lose the state, hampered by lower turnout in precisely the place that had operatives worried. Clinton got 289,000 votes in Milwaukee County compared to the 328,000 that Obama won in 2012.

“They had staff on the ground and lots of volunteers, but they weren’t running a massive program because they thought they were up 6-7 points,” said the aforementioned senior battleground state operative.

In politics, much like anything else, victory has a thousand fathers and defeat is an orphan. A senior official from Clinton’s campaign noted that they did have a large staff presence in Michigan and Wisconsin (200 and 180 people respectively) while also stressing that one of the reasons they didn’t do more was, in part, because of psychological games they were playing with the Trump campaign. They recognized that Michigan, for example, was a vulnerable state and felt that if they could keep Trump away ― by acting overly confident about their chances ― they would win it by a small margin and with a marginal resource allocation.

Clinton herself has blamed FBI Director James Comey for re-launching an investigation into her emails only to clear her days before the vote; while operatives across the spectrum, including former President Bill Clinton in the campaign’s closing days, argued that she failed to adequately reach working class white voters that had been drifting away from the Democratic Party.

“It is not black and white,” said Michael Tate, the former chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin. “I can tell you in Wisconsin that the staff they had leading the effort were top-notch field operatives. Period. Would it have helped if Hillary Clinton came in? Yes. Would it have helped if Comey didn’t push his shenanigans? Yes. Would it have helped if Trump hadn’t visited right before the election? Yes ... But I think the folks here did a good job and they just came up short in an election where we were running two historically unpopular candidates.”

The more universal explanation, however, was that the data that informed many of the strategic decisions was simply wrong. A campaign that is given a game plan that strongly points to success shouldn’t be expected to rip it up.

“We all were blinded, and even at the end, we were blinded by our own set of biases,” said Paul Maslin, a Madison-based Democratic operative and pollster.

Which explains why, in a Midwest battleground state that the Clinton campaign’s data said would be closely contested, its ground game capacity was robust. Adrienne Hines, chair of the Democratic Party in Ottawa County, Ohio, just east of Toledo, said the Clinton campaign had a very active outreach and turnout operation. But the county, which Obama won twice, still went to Trump as his message ― however detail-free ― of bringing back jobs to the economically depressed area resonated.

“We were dealing with somebody who could say whatever he wanted. It is like being at the Olympics and somebody is on steroids and somebody is not, and then blaming the person not on steroids,” Hines said of criticism of Clinton campaign tactics.

It is like being at the Olympics and somebody is on steroids and somebody is not, and then blaming the person not on steroids.
Adrienne Hines, chair of the Democratic Party in Ottawa County, on Trump’s messaging
As Democrats begin to repair their party and learn from the shortcomings of the Clinton campaign, one of the primary arguments being made is that candidates have to show up if they expect to win. Obama said as much in a recent press conference when he tied his success in Iowa to the sheer number of stops he made in the state while campaigning. And the data strongly suggests that this was a vulnerability for Clinton. As the Washington Post reported, Clinton’s campaign and outside groups supporting it aired more television ads in Omaha during the closing weeks than in Michigan and Wisconsin combined. And as NBC News reported, during the final 100 days of the election, Trump made 133 visits to Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Michigan and Wisconsin while Clinton made 87.

On the margins as well, campaign operatives say the Clinton campaign’s failure to have a footprint did real harm. In Pennsylvania, for example, the campaign had a healthy canvassing operation and was flush with volunteers, many of whom poured in from New York City and Washington, D.C. But according to one longtime grassroots campaign operative who was involved in the 2016 cycle, leadership was focused predominantly on turning out their own voters and not on persuading others to come on board.

This was a perfectly logical strategic decision, considering the massive voter registration advantage that Democrats enjoy in the state. But it meant that the Clinton campaign wasn’t able to anticipate the surge in Trump support in the rural areas because they weren’t having conversations with voters there.

The results bear this out. In Philadelphia County, Clinton got slightly more votes than Obama did in 2012 despite having a slightly smaller percentage of the vote total. But outside the city and suburbs, she lost badly. Whereas Mitt Romney won 57 percent of Elk County, 63.7 percent of Clearfield County and 72 percent of Jefferson County in 2012, Trump took in 70 percent, 73.1 percent and 78.3 percent of those counties respectively.

“Paid canvassers compensate for candidates who don’t have a huge volunteer base,” said the grassroots campaign operative. “Hillary Clinton had [a huge volunteer base]. It just wasn’t always in the places they needed it to be.”

Daniel Marans contributed reporting.

This story has been updated to include comment from the Clinton campaign.
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Re: Why Trump won

Post by nafod » Fri Nov 18, 2016 12:10 pm

Trump was the emotional equivalent of standing in front of that new Green Salad restaurant, staring at the menu, deciding between the 250 calorie salads but maybe with some ranch dressing (extra 250 calories...so sad), and then turning and going into Hoss' for a a two hour sesh at the hot food bar with desserts. Trump told you it was OK, and dished the food onto your plate.
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Re: Why Trump won

Post by dead man walking » Fri Nov 18, 2016 1:51 pm

good piece about "identity liberalism" and its fatal shortcomings, by an eastern, elite liberal professor
American liberalism has slipped into a kind of moral panic about racial, gender and sexual identity that has distorted liberalism’s message and prevented it from becoming a unifying force capable of governing.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/20/opini ... ght-region
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