Today’s key fact: you are probably wrong about almost everything

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Today’s key fact: you are probably wrong about almost everything

Post by Sangoma » Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:00 am

https://www.theguardian.com/news/databl ... everything
Britons overstate the proportion of Muslims in their country by a factor of four, according to a new survey by Ipsos Mori that reveals public understanding of the numbers behind the daily news in 14 countries.

People from the UK also think immigrants make up twice the proportion of the population as is really the case – and that many more people are unemployed than actually are.
People in the US similarly overestimate the proportion of Muslims in the population, thinking it is 15% when it is actually 1%. They believe 56% are Christian when the true figure identifying themselves as such is 78%.
t is one thing for public opinion to be shaped by the perception of issues and another when politicians choose to make promises and write policies to feed and satisfy misconceptions.
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Re: Today’s key fact: you are probably wrong about almost everything

Post by Protobuilder » Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:36 am

WildGorillaMan wrote:Enthusiasm combined with no skill whatsoever can sometimes carry the day.

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Re: Today’s key fact: you are probably wrong about almost everything

Post by Sangoma » Wed Feb 08, 2017 9:37 pm

To continue with the topic, the media really creates the wrong impression about the state of affairs in the world. Couple of months ago I was talking to someone about holiday plans for 2017 and mention India as one of the possible destinations. The colleague replied with a smirk: "It's ok to go to India unless you're a woman", implying high rate of rape, which has been the talking point in Australian newspapers in the last couple of years. I pulled the data, and it turns out that India ranks No.73 in rape statistics. First place proudly belongs to South Africa followed by several other African countries. Australia is No.11. Even if you assume that rape in India is underreported by the factor of 10 it is still lower than in the top 20 countries.

This is a good illustration of an impression vs facts. The media is good at creating the former, while completely ignoring reporting the latter. That's why reading newspapers and watching TV news is a waste of time.
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Re: Today’s key fact: you are probably wrong about almost everything

Post by Sangoma » Wed Feb 08, 2017 10:03 pm

There is an interesting story about the impressions regarding danger. in the 1980s one researcher was studying kids in their free time in some small American town. With permission (obviously) he was following kids in their ffee time - filming them, documenting what they do etc. It hasn't been done before, the results were published and discussed.

Thirty years later the same researcher wanted to repeat the study. However, after getting the approval he realised this is impossible: kids don't go out on their own anymore. He interviewed the parents (one of them was the kid from the first study), and their opinion was that it is too dangerous for children to be out on their own. At the same time crime rate in that town dropped by 25% since the first study. Once again, the world became safer, yet the opinion of the public is that life is more dangerous than ever.

The reason - again - is the fucking media. Studies that find increasing health problems and deaths are loudly covered in the media, while those showing improvement are barely mentioned. An example - CDC report on mortality in 2014 found that "The age-adjusted death rate declined to a record low in 2014." Also "Rates for the two leading causes—heart disease and cancer— continued their long-term decreasing trends. Significant decreases also occurred for Chronic lower respiratory disease, diabetes, Influenza and pneumonia, and hypertension. Significant increases occurred in 2014 from 2013 for unintentional injuries, stroke, Alzheimer’s disease, suicide, and Chronic liver disease and cirrhosis." Did anyone hear about it? Of course not. Once again, don't expect to get credible facts from newspapers. Good news don't sell.
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Re: Today’s key fact: you are probably wrong about almost everything

Post by nafod » Wed Feb 08, 2017 10:09 pm

Sangoma wrote:Thirty years later the same researcher wanted to repeat the study. However, after getting the approval he realised this is impossible: kids don't go out on their own anymore. He interviewed the parents (one of them was the kid from the first study), and their opinion was that it is too dangerous for children to be out on their own. At the same time crime rate in that town dropped by 25% since the first study. Once again, the world became safer, yet the opinion of the public is that life is more dangerous than ever.
My wife lays this story on me all the time. "Things have changed" she says. Uh...no, at least not for the worse.
Don’t believe everything you think.

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Re: Today’s key fact: you are probably wrong about almost everything

Post by Kazuya Mishima » Wed Feb 08, 2017 11:00 pm

Sangoma wrote:I pulled the data, and it turns out that India ranks No.73 in rape statistics. First place proudly belongs to South Africa followed by several other African countries.
So, you're saying I'm probably wrong about everything except niggers?

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Re: Today’s key fact: you are probably wrong about almost everything

Post by Kenny X » Thu Feb 09, 2017 12:31 am

nafod wrote:
Sangoma wrote:Thirty years later the same researcher wanted to repeat the study. However, after getting the approval he realised this is impossible: kids don't go out on their own anymore. He interviewed the parents (one of them was the kid from the first study), and their opinion was that it is too dangerous for children to be out on their own. At the same time crime rate in that town dropped by 25% since the first study. Once again, the world became safer, yet the opinion of the public is that life is more dangerous than ever.
My wife lays this story on me all the time. "Things have changed" she says. Uh...no, at least not for the worse.

It's funny. I was born at the tail-end of the 70's. The only thing my dad every worried about was the perverts. But it didnt stop him from letting me play outside until the streetlights came on, jumping my bike and skateboard off of sketchy, poorly-engineered ramps, tear-assing around in three wheelers and other so-called "death machines"...

I was alone, outside, all the time when I was growing up. Of course, I didn't turn out to be the most happy, well-adjusted adult, and some of my coping mechanisms are just as destructive as a lot of other people's, so there's that.
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Re: Today’s key fact: you are probably wrong about almost everything

Post by Sangoma » Thu Feb 09, 2017 1:50 am

It's a difficult task of a parent, to balance safety with the opportunity to develop. Everyone is worried about kids, of course, but surrounding them by the safe bubble is not good in the long run. How to find this balance is a huge topic.
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Re: Today’s key fact: you are probably wrong about almost everything

Post by Kenny X » Thu Feb 09, 2017 1:54 am

I'm staring down the double-barrels of finding that balance right now. You don't want to molly-coddle them, and you don't want to be an absentee parent, either. I get that.
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Re: Today’s key fact: you are probably wrong about almost everything

Post by Sangoma » Thu Feb 09, 2017 1:56 am

How do children spell LOVE? T-I-M-E.

This is the single most important factor of making sure your kids turn out all right.
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Re: Today’s key fact: you are probably wrong about almost everything

Post by Kenny X » Thu Feb 09, 2017 1:58 am

Sangoma wrote:How do children spell LOVE? T-I-M-E.

This is the single most important factor of making sure your kids turn out all right.

I got that going for me at least. I have all the time in the world for my forthcoming babies.
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Re: Today’s key fact: you are probably wrong about almost everything

Post by The Ginger Beard Man » Thu Feb 09, 2017 2:06 am

nafod wrote:
Sangoma wrote:Thirty years later the same researcher wanted to repeat the study. However, after getting the approval he realised this is impossible: kids don't go out on their own anymore. He interviewed the parents (one of them was the kid from the first study), and their opinion was that it is too dangerous for children to be out on their own. At the same time crime rate in that town dropped by 25% since the first study. Once again, the world became safer, yet the opinion of the public is that life is more dangerous than ever.
My wife lays this story on me all the time. "Things have changed" she says. Uh...no, at least not for the worse.
I wonder how many parents today are really worried about something happening to their kids, versus what other parents will think of them for "exposing the kids to danger." Or even having someone call CPS on their ass.
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Re: Today’s key fact: you are probably wrong about almost everything

Post by Sangoma » Thu Feb 09, 2017 2:12 am

Good luck, Kenny. It's also a balance: time for them vs. time for yourself, which they have to learn to respect. It seems life is all about finding the balance in three hundred things.
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Re: Today’s key fact: you are probably wrong about almost everything

Post by Protobuilder » Wed Feb 15, 2017 9:38 am

Sangoma wrote:There is an interesting story about the impressions regarding danger. in the 1980s one researcher was studying kids in their free time in some small American town. With permission (obviously) he was following kids in their ffee time - filming them, documenting what they do etc. It hasn't been done before, the results were published and discussed.

Thirty years later the same researcher wanted to repeat the study. However, after getting the approval he realised this is impossible: kids don't go out on their own anymore. He interviewed the parents (one of them was the kid from the first study), and their opinion was that it is too dangerous for children to be out on their own. At the same time crime rate in that town dropped by 25% since the first study. Once again, the world became safer, yet the opinion of the public is that life is more dangerous than ever.
I remember this and it essentially matches up with the advent of the 24/7 news cycle which coincided with a few high profile crimes related to children which resulted in kids being raised believing the world was a dangerous place then raising their own kids in a manner that protected them from ever finding out.
WildGorillaMan wrote:Enthusiasm combined with no skill whatsoever can sometimes carry the day.

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Re: Today’s key fact: you are probably wrong about almost everything

Post by odin » Wed Feb 15, 2017 6:43 pm

Sangoma wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/news/databl ... everything
Britons overstate the proportion of Muslims in their country by a factor of four, according to a new survey by Ipsos Mori that reveals public understanding of the numbers behind the daily news in 14 countries.

People from the UK also think immigrants make up twice the proportion of the population as is really the case – and that many more people are unemployed than actually are.
People in the US similarly overestimate the proportion of Muslims in the population, thinking it is 15% when it is actually 1%. They believe 56% are Christian when the true figure identifying themselves as such is 78%.
t is one thing for public opinion to be shaped by the perception of issues and another when politicians choose to make promises and write policies to feed and satisfy misconceptions.
Unsurprised by uk thing. This is why democracy doesn't work in current form. Uneducated fuckwitts get fed nonsense by unregulated press and then get given the vote. We need an independent educational medium for political issues and a basic qualifying exam to get the vote. Don't care whether this is illiberal, it's fucking essential.
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Re: Today’s key fact: you are probably wrong about almost everything

Post by Yes, I'm drunk » Wed Feb 15, 2017 9:26 pm

Believing anything that the (((polling companies))) tell you








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Re: Today’s key fact: you are probably wrong about almost everything

Post by climber511 » Wed Feb 15, 2017 9:45 pm

Chance of the American people winning with either of them - Fucking ZERO!

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Re: Today’s key fact: you are probably wrong about almost everything

Post by nafod » Wed Feb 15, 2017 10:05 pm

Yes, I'm drunk wrote:Believing anything that the (((polling companies))) tell you
It was a bet. The house doesn't always win, just usually.
Don’t believe everything you think.

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Re: Today’s key fact: you are probably wrong about almost everything

Post by Turdacious » Wed Feb 15, 2017 10:58 pm

The last time most of you were right about anything was probably the day before you got married.
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