How Long does the European Union Have?

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How Long does the European Union Have?

Post by Fat Cat » Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:33 pm

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European Parliament, Strasbourg, France

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The Tower of Babel by Pieter Bruegel

So...this just happened: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46530265

Thirteen people shot by (a) terrorist(s) in the very heart of the European Union, on the steps of the European Parliament. President Emmanuel Macron, who just a year ago was being hailed as the savior of the EU is on his heels, fighting for survival in the face of the the Yellow Jackets. Merkel has indicated that she is finally, thank Jesus, stepping down. There is a sense of exhaustion, and meanwhile, on all sides, centrifugal forces are pulling away from the EU in all directions: Brexit, Orban, Poland, Salvini, etc.

The question on my mind is, can the EU survive? Should it survive? And if it does, for how long? And in what form? Barbarians are at the gate, terrorists are on the streets, the people are in revolt, Euroskeptic parties are ascendant...
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Re: How Long does the European Union Have?

Post by nafod » Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:33 pm

The EU’s presence and the extraordinarily long period of peace on the continent are not unrelated. It’s been such a long stretch that people might think it normal, memories being short. Historically, it hasn’t been.
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Re: How Long does the European Union Have?

Post by Fat Cat » Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:49 pm

nafod wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:33 pm
The EU’s presence and the extraordinarily long period of peace on the continent are not unrelated. It’s been such a long stretch that people might think it normal, memories being short. Historically, it hasn’t been.
Uh, we've already gone down this line of discussion before but...

1944–1956 Guerrilla war in the Baltic states
1945–1949 Greek Civil War
1947–1962 Romanian anti-communist resistance movement
1953 Uprising in East Germany
1956 Uprising in Poznań
1956 Hungarian Revolution
1956–1962 Operation Harvest
1958 Opération Corse
1958 First Cod War
1959–2011 Basque conflict
1967 Greek coup d'état
1968 Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia
1968–1998 The Troubles
1970–1984 Unrest in Italy
1972 Bugojno group
1972–1973 Second Cod War
1974 Turkish invasion of Cyprus
1974 Carnation Revolution
1975–1976 Third Cod War
1975 Portuguese coup d'état attempt
1976–present Corsican Insurgency
1981 Spanish coup d'état attempt
1988–1994 Nagorno-Karabakh War
1989 Romanian Revolution
1990–1991 Soviet attacks on Lithuanian border posts
1991 January Events
1991 The Barricades
1991 Ten-Day War (Slovenia)
1991–1992 Georgian war against Russo-Ossetian alliance
1991–1993 Georgian Civil War
1991–1995 Croatian War of Independence
1992 Transnistria War
1992 East Prigorodny Conflict

Now, the Maastricht Treaty was signed in 1992, so let's start there. If anything the pace of unrest has accelerated.

1992–1993 War in Abkhazia
1992–1995 Bosnian War
1993 Cherbourg incident
1993 Russian constitutional crisis
1994–1996 First Chechen War
1995–1996 Imia/Kardak military crisis
1997–1998 Cyprus Missile Crisis
1997 Albanian civil war of 1997
1998–1999 Kosovo War
1998–present Dissident Irish Republican campaign
1998 Six-Day War of Abkhazia
1999 War of Dagestan
1999–2009 Second Chechen War
1999–2001 Insurgency in the Preševo Valley
2001 Georgia, Kodori crisis
2001 Insurgency in the Republic of Macedonia
2004–2013 Unrest in Kosovo
2004 unrest in Kosovo
2008 unrest in Kosovo
2011–2013 North Kosovo crisis
2004 Georgia, Adjara crisis
2004 Georgia, South Ossetia skirmishes
2006 Georgia, Kodori crisis
2007–2015 Civil war in Ingushetia
2008 Mardakert skirmishes
2008 Russia–Georgia war
2009–2017 Insurgency in the North Caucasus
2013–2014 Euromaidan and pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine
2014 Crimean crisis
2014–present War in Donbass
2015 Kumanovo clashes
2016 Nagorno-Karabakh clashes
2018 Gyunnyut clashes
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Re: How Long does the European Union Have?

Post by nafod » Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:49 am

None of what you listed was a great powers war. Many of them could have (would have?) turned out that way before.
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Re: How Long does the European Union Have?

Post by Fat Cat » Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:58 am

nafod wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:49 am
None of what you listed was a great powers war. Many of them could have (would have?) turned out that way before.
If your basic point is that the EU has stopped major wars I would suggest to you that has more to do with the fact that since the Treaty of Maastricht in 1992, there was only one "major power" in play, the USA. Hard to have a "great powers war" when there was only one great power on the field. This had far more to do with that than anything the EU could accomplish, since they couldn't even manage to put down a podunk Bosnian Civil War on their doorstep.

But then, talking about that would miss the point completely, wouldn't it? What about the current state of the EU? What about the fact that for half a decade now it has been lurching from crisis to crisis: Greek default, Brexit, Migration, etc. You are talking about what might have been, but I am talking about what is. Can you really look at the EU and diagnose it as a healthy animal?
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Re: How Long does the European Union Have?

Post by JimZipCode » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:21 am

Fat Cat wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:33 pm
The question on my mind is, can the EU survive? Should it survive? And if it does, for how long?
Ze Reich vill endure for a thousand years!
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Re: How Long does the European Union Have?

Post by nafod » Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:15 pm

Fat Cat wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:58 am
You are talking about what might have been, but I am talking about what is. Can you really look at the EU and diagnose it as a healthy animal?
You asked if it should survive, which is the important question. My answer is they should fight for it, and a good starting point is to take note of reign of peace between the “great powers”, i.e., member states.

We already know what it looks like without such a thing as the EU.
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Re: How Long does the European Union Have?

Post by Fat Cat » Thu Dec 13, 2018 5:41 pm

nafod wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:15 pm
Fat Cat wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:58 am
You are talking about what might have been, but I am talking about what is. Can you really look at the EU and diagnose it as a healthy animal?
You asked if it should survive, which is the important question. My answer is they should fight for it, and a good starting point is to take note of reign of peace between the “great powers”, i.e., member states.

We already know what it looks like without such a thing as the EU.
In point of fact, I asked both can it and should it.

We both know that the sick and deranged beast that is the EU does not represent a healthy polity, on that the record is clear. If your only argument for it is that it is better than WW2, I would argue that nuclear weapons have so completely altered the landscape of warfare that that kind of situation is unlikely to occur again, whereas the unstable and misguided EU is currently causing irreparable damage to Europe through demographic self mortification, the precipitous decline of the native population, and has directly led to the types of nationalist and populist movements which resulted in WW2.

We are currently at stage "Weimar".
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Re: How Long does the European Union Have?

Post by nafod » Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:00 am

Fat Cat wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 5:41 pm
If your only argument for it is that it is better than WW2...
That’s no small point to argue about. How many millions suffered and died?
I would argue that nuclear weapons have so completely altered the landscape of warfare that that kind of situation is unlikely to occur again...
Question for you, what was known as “The War to end all Wars?”

Nuclear weapons have taken us right to the hair trigger edge of annihilation. Repeatedly. In a world where each side has minutes to decide to launch their weapons...where someone could potentially hack into the command & control structure and send indications of imminent attack...where there are over 10,000 of them out there, any one of which if fired off, could lead to the big one.

Institutions that help create stability in such a world are A Good Thing.
whereas the unstable and misguided EU is currently causing irreparable damage to Europe through demographic self mortification, the precipitous decline of the native population, and has directly led to the types of nationalist and populist movements which resulted in WW2.

We are currently at stage "Weimar”
There was no comparable structure like the EU or even the UN prior to WWI. It is a new thing in history, and it has been enormously successful in bringing peace and prosperity to Europe.

Sure, the EU needs a course change, but people aren’t going to like the alternative if it collapses into the traditional scheming powers, negotiating individual policies and trade agreements and defense alliances.
Don’t believe everything you think.

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Re: How Long does the European Union Have?

Post by Fat Cat » Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:20 am

nafod wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:00 am
Institutions that help create stability in such a world are A Good Thing.
There is no evidence to suggest that the EU has created or promoted stability. Exhibit A: Europe today. You're trying desperately to assign to the EU things that have little or nothing to do with it. There's been currency crises, wars, social upheaval, etc. since 1992 and it's accelerating. You are just seeing what you want to see.

nafod wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:00 am
There was no comparable structure like the EU or even the UN prior to WWI. It is a new thing in history, and it has been enormously successful in bringing peace and prosperity to Europe.
LOL no it hasn't. The EU has been around since 1992 and it has not been enormously successful at bringing peace (pro tip: Europe was at peace UNTIL 1992 but not after) and the EU has been a place of continuous economic stagnation since that time, with little islands of prosperity like Germany.
nafod wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:00 am
Sure, the EU needs a course change, but people aren’t going to like the alternative if it collapses into the traditional scheming powers, negotiating individual policies and trade agreements and defense alliances.
Why not? Those "individual scheming powers" are the reason we speak English from America to Australia, and Portuguese from Mozambique to Brazil. The fact of the matter, indisputably, is that Europe prospered far more prior to the EU than after it.
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Re: How Long does the European Union Have?

Post by nafod » Fri Dec 14, 2018 11:44 pm

Fat Cat wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:20 am
nafod wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:00 am
Institutions that help create stability in such a world are A Good Thing.
There is no evidence to suggest that the EU has created or promoted stability.
70 years without a major war in a region that always was in between wars.
The EU has been around since 1992
Chuckle, the EU is a direct outgrowth of the 1951 and 1957 treaties, and has continued to evolve throughout, growing because of its success, with far more countries wanting to join then leave. 70 years and counting.
The fact of the matter, indisputably, is that Europe prospered far more prior to the EU than after it.
That is just plain nuts. The fact that Britain is desperately trying to hang on to the economic benefits of the EU while ditching the rest tells you all you need to know about that.

The EU is a bunch of relatively small to small states, that now economically swing above their weight due to their combining into a market. Break it up so each one competes evenly with China, for example, and they will get eaten alive.
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Re: How Long does the European Union Have?

Post by Fat Cat » Sat Dec 15, 2018 1:32 am

nafod wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 11:44 pm
Fat Cat wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:20 am
nafod wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:00 am
Institutions that help create stability in such a world are A Good Thing.
There is no evidence to suggest that the EU has created or promoted stability.
70 years without a major war in a region that always was in between wars.
Dude, disembark the crazy train. The American Constitution is a direct outgrowth of the enlightenment, but that doesn't mean that the USA has been around since the 17th century. By your logic the Roman Empire was the origin of the EU. "The Maastricht Treaty (1992) created the European Union..." Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_o ... pean_Union
nafod wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 11:44 pm
The EU has been around since 1992
Chuckle, the EU is a direct outgrowth of the 1951 and 1957 treaties, and has continued to evolve throughout, growing because of its success, with far more countries wanting to join then leave. 70 years and counting.
The '51 treaty created a common coal and steel market. The '58 Rome treat created the common economic community; all it did is announce future good intentions. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of ... assessment

Take a deep breath and acknowledge that you don't know what you're talking about. The EU has 26 shitty years to its credit, all of which has been a long slide into poo. And all of which is really beside the point. Look at where it is today, in the gutter, besieged by the Third World and betrayed from within by stateless technocrats and the corporations and financiers they serve. I assume you think people in France are rioting for joy at the unbridled success of the EU?
nafod wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 11:44 pm
The fact of the matter, indisputably, is that Europe prospered far more prior to the EU than after it.
That is just plain nuts. The fact that Britain is desperately trying to hang on to the economic benefits of the EU while ditching the rest tells you all you need to know about that.
The Spanish Empire ran from Madrid to Manila. The British Empire ruled from London to Hobart, and all the oceans between them. The EU, by comparison, is a stunted and bureaucratic joke.
nafod wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 11:44 pm
The EU is a bunch of relatively small to small states, that now economically swing above their weight due to their combining into a market. Break it up so each one competes evenly with China, for example, and they will get eaten alive.
The EU has made itself into a client of our strategic enemy, China. In fact, the EU is China's largest trading partner. Not only are they not competing with China, they are aiding and abetting it. Even though they supposedly have a ban on arms transfers, they have exported hundreds of millions of euros worth of defense exports to China. One more reason it should be dismantled: it fails its constituents and supports our enemies.
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Re: How Long does the European Union Have?

Post by Fat Cat » Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:18 pm

https://news.vice.com/en_us/article/d3b ... ation-pact

https://news.yahoo.com/migration-row-fo ... NlYwNzcg--

Apparently, the poorly informed people of Belgium, lacking nafod's righteous conviction have forced their PM to offer King Phillipe his resignation after signing the hateful UN Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration. More to come, I have no doubt, as the native population of Europe awakens to their safe, orderly, and regular replacement.
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Re: How Long does the European Union Have?

Post by nafod » Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:55 pm

Fat Cat wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:18 pm
https://news.vice.com/en_us/article/d3b ... ation-pact

https://news.yahoo.com/migration-row-fo ... NlYwNzcg--

Apparently, the poorly informed people of Belgium, lacking nafod's righteous conviction have forced their PM to offer King Phillipe his resignation after signing the hateful UN Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration. More to come, I have no doubt, as the native population of Europe awakens to their safe, orderly, and regular replacement.
The funny thing is, proof that the EU is so awesome is that so many people are desperate to immigrate there.
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Re: How Long does the European Union Have?

Post by Fat Cat » Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:57 pm

nafod wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:55 pm
Fat Cat wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:18 pm
https://news.vice.com/en_us/article/d3b ... ation-pact

https://news.yahoo.com/migration-row-fo ... NlYwNzcg--

Apparently, the poorly informed people of Belgium, lacking nafod's righteous conviction have forced their PM to offer King Phillipe his resignation after signing the hateful UN Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration. More to come, I have no doubt, as the native population of Europe awakens to their safe, orderly, and regular replacement.
The funny thing is, proof that the EU is so awesome is that so many people are desperate to immigrate there.
People have been eager to immigrate to white countries for a lot longer than the EU has been around. One of the EU elite's principal crimes was to further incentivize that process by subsidizing it at the expense of their own people.
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Re: How Long does the European Union Have?

Post by tough old man » Sun Dec 23, 2018 5:17 am

People have been eager to immigrate to white countries for a lot longer than the EU has been around. One of the EU elite's principal crimes was to further incentivize that process by subsidizing it at the expense of their own people
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Re: How Long does the European Union Have?

Post by Fat Cat » Mon Jan 07, 2019 11:34 pm

“You know the biggest worry is that Europe doesn’t want anymore, or has lost the sense of its origins, it has lost its roots.

“Yet a tree without roots it dies. And Im afraid west will die.

“There are plenty of signs. You see plenty of signs. No more natality.

“You are invaded still by other cultures other peoples, which will progressively dominate you by their numbers and completely change your culture, your convictions, your morality.”


-Cardinal Robert Sarah of Ghana

https://voiceofeurope.com/2019/01/afric ... r-numbers/
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Re: How Long does the European Union Have?

Post by Fat Cat » Thu Jan 31, 2019 10:52 pm

France is taking back 130 ISIS tweakers (lol)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... fm-reports

But yellow vest protestors? Shoot on sight!

https://www.france24.com/en/20190130-fr ... s-castaner
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Re: How Long does the European Union Have?

Post by Turdacious » Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:47 am

Fat Cat wrote:
Thu Jan 31, 2019 10:52 pm
But yellow vest protestors? Shoot on sight!

https://www.france24.com/en/20190130-fr ... s-castaner
There's some history with fascists in France.
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Re: How Long does the European Union Have?

Post by tough old man » Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:56 am

FC France is basically fucked. Fuck the EU also.

Europe is in danger of being overrun. Its that simple. Europeans are being out bred and out legislated by the invaders .

Thankfully a few countries are already fighting back.
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Re: How Long does the European Union Have?

Post by Fat Cat » Mon Feb 11, 2019 6:20 pm

People don't realize how critical the situation, how planned it is, and those that do are afraid of being characterized as racist. It's crazy.
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Re: How Long does the European Union Have?

Post by Fat Cat » Mon Feb 11, 2019 6:55 pm

Europe may be on the cusp of a nightmare, but it’s not too late to wake up

Feb 11, 2019

By George Soros



MUNICH, Germany (Project Syndicate) — Europe is sleepwalking into oblivion, and the people of Europe need to wake up before it is too late.

If they don’t, the European Union will go the way of the Soviet Union in 1991. Neither our leaders nor ordinary citizens seem to understand that we are experiencing a revolutionary moment, that the range of possibilities is very broad, and that the eventual outcome is thus highly uncertain.

Most of us assume that the future will more or less resemble the present, but this is not necessarily so. In a long and eventful life, I have witnessed many periods of what I call radical disequilibrium. We are living in such a period today.



The next inflection point will be the elections for the European Parliament in May 2019. Unfortunately, anti-European forces will enjoy a competitive advantage in the balloting. There are several reasons for this, including the outdated party system that prevails in most European countries, the practical impossibility of treaty change, and the lack of legal tools for disciplining member states that violate the principles on which the European Union was founded.

The EU can impose the acquis communautaire (the body of European Union law) on applicant countries, but lacks sufficient capacity to enforce member states’ compliance.

The antiquated party system hampers those who want to preserve the values on which the EU was founded, but helps those who want to replace those values with something radically different. This is true in individual countries and even more so in trans-European alliances.

The party system of individual states reflects the divisions that mattered in the 19th and 20th centuries, such as the conflict between capital and labor. But the cleavage that matters most today is between pro- and anti-European forces.



Germany

The EU’s dominant country is Germany, and the dominant political alliance in Germany — between the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Bavaria-based Christian Social Union (CSU) — has become unsustainable.

The alliance worked as long as there was no significant party in Bavaria to the right of the CSU. That changed with the rise of the extremist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). In last September’s länder elections, the CSU’s result was its worst in over six decades, and the AfD entered the Bavarian Parliament for the first time.

The AfD’s rise removed the raison d’être of the CDU-CSU alliance. But that alliance cannot be broken up without triggering new elections that neither Germany nor Europe can afford. As it is, the current ruling coalition cannot be as robustly pro-European as it would be without the AfD threatening its right flank.

The situation is far from hopeless.

The German Greens have emerged as the only consistently pro- European party in the country, and they continue rising in opinion polls, whereas the AfD seems to have reached its highpoint (except in the former East Germany). But now CDU/CSU voters are represented by a party whose commitment to European values is ambivalent.



U.K and Brexit

In the United Kingdom, too, an antiquated party structure prevents the popular will from finding proper expression. Both Labour and the Conservatives are internally divided, but their leaders, Jeremy Corbyn for Labour and Theresa May for the Tories, are so determined to deliver Brexit that they have agreed to cooperate to attain it.

The situation is so complicated that most Britons just want to get it over with, although it will be the defining event for the country for decades to come.

But the collusion between Corbyn and May has aroused opposition in both parties, which in the case of Labour is bordering on rebellion. The day after Corbyn and May met, May announced a program to aid impoverished pro-Brexit Labour constituencies in the north of England. Corbyn is now accused of betraying the pledge he made at Labour’s September 2018 party conference to back a second Brexit referendum if holding an election is not possible.

The public is also becoming aware of the dire consequences of Brexit. The chances that May’s deal will be rejected on Feb. 14 are growing by the day. That could set in motion a groundswell of support for a referendum or, even better, for revoking Britain’s Article 50 notification.



Italy’s predicament

Italy finds itself in a similar predicament.

The EU made a fatal mistake in 2017 by strictly enforcing the Dublin Agreement, which unfairly burdens countries like Italy where migrants first enter the EU. This drove Italy’s predominantly pro-European and pro-immigration electorate into the arms of the anti-European League party and Five Star Movement in 2018. The previously dominant Democratic Party is in disarray.

As a result, the significant portion of the electorate that remains pro-European has no party to vote for. There is, however, an attempt underway to organize a united pro-European list. A similar reordering of party systems is happening in France, Poland, Sweden, and probably elsewhere.

When it comes to trans-European alliances, the situation is even worse.

National parties at least have some roots in the past, but the trans-European alliances are entirely dictated by party leaders’ self-interest. The European People’s Party (EPP) is the worst offender. The EPP is almost entirely devoid of principles, as demonstrated by its willingness to permit the continued membership of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz in order to preserve its majority and control the allocation of top jobs in the EU.

Anti-European forces may look good in comparison: at least they have some principles, even if they are odious.



Europe’s interests

It is difficult to see how the pro-European parties can emerge victorious from the election in May unless they put Europe’s interests ahead of their own.

One can still make a case for preserving the EU in order radically to reinvent it. But that would require a change of heart in the EU. The current leadership is reminiscent of the politburo when the Soviet Union collapsed — continuing to issue ukazes as if they were still relevant.

The first step to defending Europe from its enemies, both internal and external, is to recognize the magnitude of the threat they present. The second is to awaken the sleeping pro-European majority and mobilize it to defend the values on which the EU was founded.

Otherwise, the dream of a united Europe could become the nightmare of the 21st century.



https://www.marketwatch.com/story/europ ... 2019-02-11
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