Wrestling Observer thread
Posted: Thu Nov 17, 2011 6:10 pm
ITT I will put relevant material from new Wrestling Observer issues since there seems to be some interest around here.
This stuff is from the 11/21/11 issue.
This stuff is from the 11/21/11 issue.
Since Lorenzo and Frank Fertitta purchased UFC from Bob Meyrowitz, and Dana White was put in charge, there have been a number of pivotal shows historically.
The first was September 28, 2001, UFC 33, Victory in Vegas, the company’s first time back cleared on PPV. They spent millions in branding advertising and set up Tito Ortiz vs. Vitor Belfort for the light heavyweight title as the main event. But everything went wrong. Belfort was injured and replaced by Vladimir Matyushenko. 9/11 had just taken place 17 days earlier and people were not yet in the mood to spend money. The show didn’t do nearly what was expected on PPV, although the number was not a disaster. But the show was. Every match went to a decision. Every match was boring. And the three hour window of the show ended somewhere in the fourth round of a five round main event. Much of the country was cut off at that point and refunds were asked for en masse. After such a bad debut, PPV business dropped significantly and it took a long time to regain the audience.
The company struggled, a fight with Ken Shamrock vs. Tito Ortiz did well with strong promotion on Fox Sports Net. That show on November 22, 2002, UFC 40, was the company’s first true PPV success, and that was a good show. However, all the new viewers who came to see Shamrock, since he lost a one-sided bout, didn’t stick around and PPV numbers fell to pre-Shamrock levels.
Next was the Ultimate Fighter reality show on Spike. There is a very good chance if that show was not a success, UFC would have lost TV and have been folded or sold. While most histories trace the success to the Forrest Griffin vs. Stephan Bonnar fight, it was really an episode several weeks earlier, where Josh Koscheck sprayed a garden hose on a sleeping Chris Leben, and then denied it when confronted by White. The scene turned Leben, a heel up to that point, babyface. Koscheck has been a heel ever since. More than six years later, both are prominent UFC headliners and the fan base has largely never forgotten the incident. The Koscheck vs. Leben grudge match drew a 2.0 rating for a show that aired at 11 p.m. on a Monday night. But the match was awful. Koscheck took Leben down and held him down for three rounds to win a decision. UFC was all the buzz the week before, and people said that all the new audience, mostly WWF wrestling fans, were hooked by the grudge, but the match was terrible and they blew it. And ratings for the show did drop. Shortly thereafter was the Ultimate Fighter final on April 9, 2005, the company’s first live fight card on Spike TV.
Few remember that Forrest Griffin vs. Stephan Bonnar was not the main event. Ken Shamrock vs. Rich Franklin was. But that was a short match. Griffin vs. Bonnar stole the show, in what was among the best UFC fights in history. In fact, to this day, it usually wins any poll of the best fighter ever. In front of the company’s biggest audience to date, they had their best match and the show was a home run. UFC business grew by leaps and bounds over the next 18 months.
July 8, 2006, was the next biggie, the rematch of the 2002 Ken Shamrock vs. Ortiz grudge match. The first time it was an underground grudge match. This time, after the highest rated season up to that point of Ultimate Fighter, the match drew 775,000 PPV buys, blowing away all previous numbers. The show was a disaster. The match went 1:00 with a stoppage that most people thought was premature. Then Tim Sylvia and Andrei Arlovski, who went on last in a heavyweight title match, stunk the joint out for five rounds. There was the thought that all these new people were sampling and they would never watch again. In fact, nothing of the sort happened. A third match with Shamrock vs. Ortiz, one that MMA hardcores screamed at the top of their lungs shouldn’t happen and that nobody wanted to see, drew TV ratings that shocked everyone, and after winning Ortiz’s PPV with Chuck Liddell topped 1 million buys for the first time, and the company was on its way.
The next big step was the debut on the FOX network on 11/12, and the decision was made to go with just one fight, doing a long introductory buildup and treating the fight like an old-time boxing heavyweight title fight. Dana White talked about how in the days of Wide World of Sports, they would build up one fight, Cain Velasquez defending the heavyweight title against Junior Dos Santos, make it huge and that was it. But UFC, while business always ebbs and flows based on the main event, was about the show itself, not one match. The decision was heavily criticized beforehand, particularly with Clay Guida vs. Ben Henderson, a potential classic being the match cut from the show.
It appeared to have backfired. After 37 minutes of build, with videos and hype that made UFC look more major league than ever before, and made the two stars showdown into something huge, in the blink of an eye, it was over. Dos Santos drilled Velasquez with a right behind the ear and Velasquez went down, losing hie equilibrium. He got no guard game going and was taking shots on the ground when ref John McCarthy stopped it in 1:04, and there was a new heavyweight champion.
There’s nothing wrong with first round knockouts, but it looked so easy. Velasquez, who had never even been in a disadvantage position in his career for more than a few seconds, marketed as a hero to Mexican-Americans, was destroyed. The American version of the show overall was disappointment because of the fight. The version shown in the rest of the world, instead aired Guida vs. Henderson, was a home run of a show because those two had an all-time classic and potential match of the year.
What happened in the title fight was simply that Velasquez got nailed with a hard punch from a heavyweight with knockout power. Velasquez’s weakness was always that he could be hit, but that he recovered instantaneously. This time, whether it’s the beginning of the road downward like happened with Chuck Liddell and Wanderlei Silva, who also could be hit but were successful because of their recovery power after being hit, or just a fluke, only time will tell. The fight was very similar to the Georges St. Pierre title loss to Matt Serra, and that hardly spelled the end of St. Pierre’s career.
Both guys were hurt coming into the fight. Dos Santos suffered a torn meniscus in his right knee 11 days earlier. He spent two days on crutches and the rest of his training was spent shadow boxing in a pool. Exactly what the situation was with Velasquez isn’t quite clear. Both before and after the match, he said the same thing, that he was banged up a little, but you always are after a training camp and he was better off than some fights and worse than others.
I saw him twice in the two weeks before the fight. He was moving fine and not missing training. Nine days before the fight I saw him running at a healthy clip for a big guy and for a long time at that clip on the treadmill. He was clearly in shape, moving like that without tiring, as one would expect given his rep.
Then at weigh-ins he weighed 249 pounds, and looked soft. In his previous fights, he had ranged from 235 to 244. When he fought Brock Lesnar last year, he wanted to add weight to combat Lesnar’s size, was lifting heavy, and had more muscle mass than now, and got up to 244. For Dos Santos, one would have expected him to shed weight, looking for speed and stamina. In comparison, he looked soft in the upper body, and he was coming off surgery for a torn rotator cuff. And he did get a cortisone shot in his knee before the fight. Still, taking a shot that hard was going to put most people down, good knee or bad knee, whether their shoulder was 100% or not.
While Dos Santos is more charismatic than Velasquez, well, almost everyone is, Velasquez was more valuable for his ability to mobilize the Mexican-American audience. For all the criticism of UFC’s marketing of Velasquez last year, it only showed how clueless those doing the criticism was. They took a great fighter with no charisma, and made him an ethnic star. Both at weigh-ins and at the life show, it was clear there was a very different Mexican audience, wearing Rey Mysterio and Santo masks, dressed in colors and cheering him on at a superstar level. There are general rules about what type of person can be a superstar and he does not fit into that category. But the most important rule of being a superstar is the simplest–“What works works.” And it worked. You’d have to be deaf, dumb and blind not to see it, even though by all usual rules, it shouldn’t have happened.
But he’s going to have to regain what he had, and marketing can’t do it. We’ve already seen one loss in MMA kills nobody, as fans get that anyone can win on a given day and it’s a game of inches, and sometimes less than inches. GSP loss the same way and ended up bigger than ever. If Velasquez wins a few in a row, he’ll be bigger than ever. If not, then he’ll never be back where he was.
Dana White was a nervous man on Sunday morning. While he publicly claimed the show was a big success at the press conference, he knew full well that things did not go well to maximize ratings with one minute of fighting in a 60 minute show.
By starting the fight at 9:40 p.m., it was clear what the FOX strategy was. If the fight went passed three rounds, it would go past 10 p.m., when the local newscast was scheduled to start. At that point, a ton of new viewers would be watching the final rounds of what on paper expected to be an exciting fight. A five round fight would have ended at 10:10 and you’d still have to read the decision, do the interviews and wrap up, taking you until close to 10:20.
There are a lot of ways to read the rating. My expectation going in was a 3.5 or better because of the novelty of being the first show. It ended up as a 3.1, but that doesn’t really tell the story for a number of reasons. Had the fight gone any length of time, you can’t really figure exactly what it would have done, because we don’t have minute by minutes and we don’t know how much the fight would have gained over time.
The quarter-hour from 9:30 to 9:45 did 7.08 million viewers on FOX and about 900,000 on Fox Deportes in Spanish. That’s the start point. It’s reasonable to assume given time to go even into the second round, that this hyped main event would have gained a million viewers during the fight (and that is a conservative estimate). And keep in mind that 8 million is a quarter hour, which includes several minutes of people clicking off when the fight ended, and several minutes of talking and intros that don’t do as well as the fight itself. If the quarter averaged 8 million, it’s very possible that fight could have started at closer to 9 million and grown past 10 million. None of this happened, but those are numbers that it likely would have done and are higher than was expected. Between the FOX side and the UFC side, even though the end number was a 3.1 on FOX and 3.88 on Fox Deportes (average rating for a two hour live show, the rating is based on the Fox Deportes Spanish language universe so that’s actually 497,000 viewers on average, although the second hour was much higher than the first and the main event would have spiked even more on Deportes than FOX given who was in it) they were extremely happy. Dana White showed up at the office after getting the breakdown of all the numbers three days later, told everyone they had done their job, it was a great day, and to take the rest of the day off.
People were talking that this was a worst case scenario, was still a success, and that they would only build from there. But that’s not a lock. There is often more interest in first time. You have to remember no farther back than the XFL to see a 9.5 starting point, triple what this was, and down in the toilet within a few weeks and being one of TV’s all-time bombs. I figured all the promotional push and novelty would mean something, but it’s the third and fourth show where we’ll really see what this means. The fact is, UFC hit 3.1s for live shows in 2006 and 2007 on Spike, and since then, never came close again.
The show also had competition from itself on Spike. Spike pushed a three-hour block of Velasquez and Dos Santos fights doing 719,000 viewers head-to-head, as well as 923,000 for the lead-in hour and 787,000 for the follow-up hour.
The show averaged 5.7 million viewers for the one-hour broadcast. It was the largest audience ever to watch an MMA television show in the United States, breaking the record of 5.3 million set on September 30, 2009, for an episode of The Ultimate Fighter reality show on Spike featuring a taped match with Kimbo Slice vs. Roy Nelson. The truth is 5.3 million viewers on Spike (a 3.7 rating) is far more impressive than 5.7 million on FOX, although when you throw in the competition on Spike and that it was simulcast in Spanish and 6.2 million were watching for the hour with another 719,000 watching a different show with the same fighters. But the last quarter fell off a cliff, and for the first 45 minutes, they averaged 7 million viewers and a 3.7 rating between the English and Spanish language version.
“I’m pumped,” said UFC president Dana White when he got the number on Sunday. “I wouldn’t change a thing. We had to introduce the sport to a bunch of people who had never been it before.”
“It would have been great to have had a three-round war, but we can’t control how the fight is going to go.”
Aside from the Slice fight on Ultimate Fighter, the UFC had twice done 3.1 ratings on Spike, but with fewer viewers due to the difference between the reach of a network station and a cable station. The October 10, 2006, live fight special with the third Ken Shamrock vs. Tito Ortiz grudge match did that rating, which amounted to 4.3 million viewers at the time. The September 8, 2007, fight on Spike, a unification of the UFC light heavyweight title and Pride light heavyweight title, with Quinton Jackson beating Dan Henderson, drew that same rating which was 4.7 million viewers.
It was the UFC’s debut on network television. The previous high on a network basis was the May 31, 2008, Elite XC show on CBS featuring Slice vs. James Thompson, which did a 3.0 rating and 4.85 million viewers.
While Fox executives would not predict a rating ahead of time, reports were they were selling ads based on predictions of 4.5 million viewers, so even with the short fight, they easily beat their goal. White said that he was predicting the largest audience for the sport in history, and admitted before ratings came in of being a little worried after the show based on the short fight.
All of the aforementioned shows had the advantage of being longer shows with more fight time, allowing more time to build the audience. On fight shows, the time fighting invariably spikes much higher than the time building the fight before and analyzing the fight after, so the rating would have been significantly higher with a longer main event. If you throw the Spanish feed in, the national rating for the hour would be a 3.5. The peak quarter including both feeds was a 4.4. If you estimate a two round fight, with no overrun boost, between the two feeds you’d have had a 4.1 rating, a 5.7 in Males 18-34 and 4.9 in Males 35-49. Those are blow away numbers. As noted, they didn’t do those numbers, but that is pretty much the numbers they would have done if you figure they would have kept the likely first minute fighter number and not have the drop (the final quarter did 3.6 million viewers on FOX, a drop of 3.4 million once the fight ended and one would suspect the Deportes drop was similar and also took down the average for the show).
The show was an even bigger success in the target demographics, doing a 4.3 in Males 18-34 and 4.0 in Males 18-49 (not including the Deportes numbers and these are artificially lower due to people tuning out after the fight ended and there was still 15 minutes left) . Both numbers are 34% and 33% higher than the Slice vs. Thompson debut on CBS, which, because of it being on CBS, drew an older audience. It beat the Oregon State vs. Stanford game in Males 18-34 and finished second behind that game of any show on television on Saturday. In fact, the 4.3 in Males 18-34 beat every college football game this season except the LSU vs. Alabama game. It beat 65% of the playoff and World Series baseball games this season on FOX in that demo. It was the third highest rated television show of the year on Fox Deportes.
Perhaps most impressive was the show drew 1.7 million women over the age of 18 on FOX alone.
It was the most watched fight broadcast on U.S. television since the 2003 HBO broadcast of the Lennox Lewis vs. Vitali Klitschko boxing heavyweight and largest on broadcast television since 1998, which did 7.2 million viewers. Of course 7.2 million viewers on HBO is umpteen times more impressive than the same number of FOX given the difference is homes getting the stations. But there hasn’t been a boxing show on network television to pull these numbers since 1998.
But the show was generally not well received in the sense it was a ton of talking and a minute of fighting. Again, historically bad shows can hurt and have hurt. I don’t know that they made a ton of new fans, but I also don’t think they hurt themselves going forward. This week’s PPV will be interesting to see if it beats 250,000, which is where I’m guessing it would fall if there was no help or harm done by the broadcast. If it shows an increase from that level, that’s a very good sign. If not, then this show didn’t likely help much if at all. I didn’t get the impression, even as major league as they felt, that this show would leave a viewer feeling they now can’t miss this and would pay to see a PPV featuring different fighters. Now, will this help the Overeem vs. Lesnar numbers, since that was hyped and that story was told about the winner getting the winner of this fight, you would hope it would help that significantly.
That doesn’t mean they’ll be able to hit these numbers for a second show. Elite XC had a good first show and bombed on the second. And there also is the question of how to balance what you give away free while not cannibalizing your PPV business. While it’s possible things can change, but not for at least the seven year duration of this contract, they simply can’t make close to the money doing a show like this as they can on PPV. If the best fights are free, you’ll kill PPV for secondary shows. If television is used to do top contender fights to expose people before the big audience before they get their title shot, then that works better for PPV, but can those fights do network prime time ratings? There are a ton of questions left unanswered here.
It’s been reported in several places that the next FOX show is 1/28. Over the weekend, it was hinted to us that date would be the first FX show, not the next FOX show, but nothing is official. Different people have contradictory stories but what we could piece together is that right now there is a plan for a January show that would be on either 1/21 or 1/28.
Here’s a chart of the biggest shows historically and how this show compared. For this show I’m combing the English and Spanish feeds because that is the number of Americans watching the show. For designations, 10/10/06 was the show headlined by Ken Shamrock vs. Tito Ortiz, 9/8/07 was the show headlined by Dan Henderson vs. Rampage Jackson in a UFC vs. Pride light heavyweight title unification match, 5/31/08 was Kimbo Slice vs. James Thompson and Gina Carano vs. Kaitlyn Young on CBS and 9/30/09 was Slice vs. Roy Nelson on The Ultimate Fighter on Spike. These are the four most successful MMA television shows before this one. RTG is household rating, viewers is the average of the entire show in millions, peak is the peak quarter in million and Males 18-34 is the rating in that demo.
SHOW RTG VIEWERS PEAK M18-34
10/10/06 3.1 4.2 5.7 6.0
9/8/07 3.1 4.7 5.9 5.7
5/31/08 3.0 4.9 6.5 3.2
9/30/09 3.7 5.3 6.1 6.9
11/12/11 3.5 6.3 8.0 4.7
A few notes about these comparisons. A show on a network should easily beat a show on Spike, so the Spike numbers for the three big ones are all more impressive, even though this was seen by more people even with virtually no fighting. The CBS show also had a disadvantage and would have done about 10% higher numbers, except a number of affiliates representing 10% of the CBS universe did not show the first Elite XC show because of the negative stigma of MMA on network TV and not wanting it on their local stations. There was no such issue with FOX in 2011. However, they were all longer shows with multiple matches and more time to build and increase an audience, plus they were all fight shows instead of essentially a talk show. But none had the amount of promotion in front of as many eyeballs as this show. By all rights, this should have been the highest rated show ever. But the reality is if the fight had gone two rounds, it easily would have been, so the reason it wasn’t isn’t a conceptual failure as much as the part nobody can control, the fight itself, went too short.
Another note is that while UFC can’t come close to matching the Male 18-34 audience from the specials years earlier, the audience is more broad-based. Shamrock vs. Ortiz did a 6.0 in Males 18-34 and a 3.0 in Males 35-49, while this show did a 4.7 between the two feeds in Males 18-34 but did a 4.1 in Males 35-49.
The strongest markets for the show were Las Vegas, Dallas, Phoenix, San Antonio, Tulsa, San Diego, Greensboro, New Orleans and Los Angeles. What also makes that impressive is the show aired in Las Vegas, San Diego and Los Angeles from 6 to 7 p.m., out of prime time.
When CBS and Spike broadcasted major MMA events, they would tape delay them for the West Coast so they would air in prime time when a larger audience would be watching. So that was a point that hurt this show in a comparison, particularly since the strongest major market, Los Angeles, was getting the show at 6 p.m.
UFC and FOX executives on 11/9 laid out some of the 2012 television plans, including an almost but not quite rebranding of Fuel TV as the UFC network.
George Greenberg, who heads Fuel, stated that they are planning on airing about 2,000 hours of UFC programming, or an average of five-and-a-half hours a day, over the next year. Most of that would be airing shows similar to the UFC Unleashed show that airs on Spike, compilations of old fights from both the UFC and the Pride library. But it would also include at least 100 hours of live programming, between events, event coverage, pre and post-game shows, weigh-ins and UFC talk shows.
Dana White noted that the new deal would result in every UFC fight airing on television live or same day tape delay in some form. Starting with the 1/14 show from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, for PPV shows, the early fights on the card, which formerly aired on Facebook, will now air on Fuel. The big advantage on that is Facebook fights used to be filled with messages on how to stream the PPVs illegally, so they were kind of cutting their own throats by putting it on a venue with messages that you could see. On television, that isn’t happening. There will also be a one hour window on FX on PPV nights from 9-10 p.m., airing the final two prelim fights leading into the PPV.
In all, the plans are for a minimum of 30 live events of the UFC brand, not including other events if Showtime picks up the Strikeforce deal. The breakdown will be 14 PPV events, four live fight specials on Saturday nights on FOX, six live fight specials on Friday nights on FX, and a minimum of six, and possibly more, live fight specials on Fuel. That doesn’t include another 24 or so live fights on FX on Friday nights as the Ultimate Fighter reality show goes to a live fight format.
David Hill, FOX Sports Media Group Chairman, laid out plans that the FOX specials would be 90 minute shows, airing from 8:30 to 10 p.m. on Saturday nights, airing either two or three fights. The FX live cards on Fridays would be two hour shows, while the Fuel shows will be three hours in length, besides airing the prelims.
Fuel will also air post-game shows after the Fox events, and the Fox Sports Radio network will continue to carry the Fox shows.
White noted that Fuel will be a must-have for UFC fans. Greenberg said that Fuel will change its aim, as it was formerly a network that aimed for the 12-34 age group, airing sports like snowboarding and surfing, and is moving its aim to 18-49, with UFC as its staple programming. It will continue to air the other types of sports programming.
Regarding the plans Dana White talked about several weeks back of running two shows on the same night, on 2/25 in specific, that isn’t happening. Lorenzo Fertitta noted where this came up was that they had scheduled a PPV date on 2/25 for the show from Saitama, Japan, and then FOX came to them and offered that same date, so they went to their production people and looked at whether they could handle two shows on the same night, which would air one after the other. They felt they could do it, but something happened, likely FOX changing their mind on the date. In that situation, they’d have done a 90 minute FOX show to build the PPV that would start at 10 p.m., but right now there are no dates to do such a thing on the schedule.