IGX

nafod wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 12:51 pm

Fat Cat wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:19 am Korean fried chicken really is no fucking joke. Now, on topic:

I'm starting to think that NYC is committing a major fraud by classifying unrelated deaths, or at best co-morbidities, as COVID-19. Consider this: the ten largest cities in the world, like Tokyo, Dhaka, Cairo, Mexico City, Delhi, Beijing, Sao Paulo, Osaka, Shanghai, together have a combined population of 230+ million people.

Their total deaths, combined, from coronavirus are about 930.

New York City has about 8 million people, and is claiming 11,000+ deaths. That's a fatality rate 200 times the average of these other cities, many of which are not known for robust health care systems (e.g., Dhaka).

Is NYC just playing the numbers for the federal handouts? What's going on?

Uhhh, the pandemic came to NYC.

How did Milan do? That’s a better comparison.

I’m betting they undercounted. People were dying of covid before they knew it was a thing, and the deaths at home have far exceeded normal numbers, with those home deaths not getting tested.

Bennyonesix1 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 2:44 pm Aren't you the expert on Bayes?

Maybe spend some time "updating your priors"...

More than 27,000 New Yorkers have died since the start of the novel coronavirus outbreak in March — 20,900 more than would be expected over this period and thousands more than have been captured by official coronavirus death statistics.

As of Sunday, the city had attributed 16,673 deaths to coronavirus, either because people had tested positive for the virus, or because the circumstances of their death meant that city health officials believed the virus to be the most likely cause of death.

But there remains a large gap between this number and the total deaths above typical levels in the last six and a half weeks: more than 4,200 people whose deaths are not captured by the official coronavirus toll.

A review of mortality data in 12 countries showed that official death tallies have undercounted coronavirus deaths by tens of thousands.

The recent death count reached six times the normal number of deaths for the city at this time of year, a surge in deaths much larger than what could be attributed to normal seasonal variations from influenza, heart disease or other more common causes. The city’s largest mass casualty event in recent memory, the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, claimed only a fraction as many lives.

Bennyonesix1 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 2:44 pm So "home deaths" is the new meme to save the appearances?

Gotta keep that fatality rate and Rsub0 up huh?

Aren't you the expert on Bayes?

Maybe spend some time "updating your priors" and not jiggering with your construct to preserve them.

nafod wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 12:51 pm

Fat Cat wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:19 am Korean fried chicken really is no fucking joke. Now, on topic:

I'm starting to think that NYC is committing a major fraud by classifying unrelated deaths, or at best co-morbidities, as COVID-19. Consider this: the ten largest cities in the world, like Tokyo, Dhaka, Cairo, Mexico City, Delhi, Beijing, Sao Paulo, Osaka, Shanghai, together have a combined population of 230+ million people.

Their total deaths, combined, from coronavirus are about 930.

New York City has about 8 million people, and is claiming 11,000+ deaths. That's a fatality rate 200 times the average of these other cities, many of which are not known for robust health care systems (e.g., Dhaka).

Is NYC just playing the numbers for the federal handouts? What's going on?

Uhhh, the pandemic came to NYC.

How did Milan do? That’s a better comparison.

I’m betting they undercounted. People were dying of covid before they knew it was a thing, and the deaths at home have far exceeded normal numbers, with those home deaths not getting tested.

Bennyonesix1 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:06 pm This all just goes to show that this whole thing was a NYC problem. They acted as a pump to spread infected theough the NE. And they let their old folks die in the homes.

All to keep the subways open and the right of NYC residents to travel.

It shows nothing about the SARS 2 Rsubzero or fatality rates.

Bennyonesix1 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:06 pm It shows nothing about the SARS 2 Rsubzero or fatality rates.

The Ginger Beard Man wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:57 pm I haven’t been around here much but I heard from Shaf that this thread exists and specifically about Fat Cat’s speculation that the numbers are padded.
I’m in Brooklyn and can give a little on the ground perspective.
Short answer, I don’t doubt the numbers are padded somewhat. There isn’t massive fraud.
Not everyone was tested, even in the hospitals. A lot of people died at home and probably weren’t tested. They may have been called Covid deaths erroneously. Or not. As an example, I have a cousin who’s friend called his sister one night and said he had a fever and was going to bed. They found his body 3 days later. Mid 40s. I don’t know what his death certificate said, sounds like possible Covid. Also, you couldn’t get tested. I probably had it, and both the teledoc who diagnosed me with a likely viral respiratory infection and my friend who recently completed a residency said stay home and don’t get tested. Don’t go to a hospital unless you get very sick. My friend has since worked with Covid patients and is sure I had it. I know 10 people who probably had it, and only 4 were tested. My cousin (another cousin) the cop, a friend who is a mortician, her boyfriend, and a guy in my apartment building who is HIV positive and ended up with double pneumonia and 16 IVs.
As an added bonus, my wife is a reporter at a large, broad sheet newspaper, a business paper read internationally. NY based but not the Times. I don’t want to name it. She covers hospitals. Keep in mind, my wife started working from home on 3/13 due to someone in the newsroom testing positive a couple days before. We live in a one bedroom apartment, so she was 15 feet away from me while conducting interviews throughout the peak of the pandemic. She wasn’t only covering NY, she’s national. Another reporter specifically covers NY hospitals.
NYC had its first confirmed case on March 1. On March 5, our mayor declared that it was safe to ride the subway. On March 7 Governor Cuomo declares a statewide state of emergency. On March 14, we had our first two fatalities. The city finally shut down on March 17. Probably a little too late, and even then only because Cuomo forced the mayors hand.
I haven’t looked this up yet, but my sister, who lives in Philly, just told me she read that people looking at the data have suggested that if the City shut one week earlier, the death toll would have been cut in half. If I find that I’ll post a link.
At the height, the only sound we heard was ambulances. And they didn’t stop. Three hospitals run by Northwell were over 100% of ICU capacity, even though they had added 1 or 2 ICUs in each. But they didn’t have staff for all that. So patients weren’t getting as much attention as ICU patients normally get. This thing spreads easily in tight spaces and the hospitals weren’t equipped with proper facilities to prevent the spread. So people who came in without the virus were exposed to it.
Yeah, the numbers are off. Not that far off, though.

The Ginger Beard Man wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:57 pm I haven’t been around here much but I heard from Shaf that this thread exists and specifically about Fat Cat’s speculation that the numbers are padded.
I’m in Brooklyn and can give a little on the ground perspective.
Short answer, I don’t doubt the numbers are padded somewhat. There isn’t massive fraud.
Not everyone was tested, even in the hospitals. A lot of people died at home and probably weren’t tested. They may have been called Covid deaths erroneously. Or not. As an example, I have a cousin who’s friend called his sister one night and said he had a fever and was going to bed. They found his body 3 days later. Mid 40s. I don’t know what his death certificate said, sounds like possible Covid. Also, you couldn’t get tested. I probably had it, and both the teledoc who diagnosed me with a likely viral respiratory infection and my friend who recently completed a residency said stay home and don’t get tested. Don’t go to a hospital unless you get very sick. My friend has since worked with Covid patients and is sure I had it. I know 10 people who probably had it, and only 4 were tested. My cousin (another cousin) the cop, a friend who is a mortician, her boyfriend, and a guy in my apartment building who is HIV positive and ended up with double pneumonia and 16 IVs.
As an added bonus, my wife is a reporter at a large, broad sheet newspaper, a business paper read internationally. NY based but not the Times. I don’t want to name it. She covers hospitals. Keep in mind, my wife started working from home on 3/13 due to someone in the newsroom testing positive a couple days before. We live in a one bedroom apartment, so she was 15 feet away from me while conducting interviews throughout the peak of the pandemic. She wasn’t only covering NY, she’s national. Another reporter specifically covers NY hospitals.
NYC had its first confirmed case on March 1. On March 5, our mayor declared that it was safe to ride the subway. On March 7 Governor Cuomo declares a statewide state of emergency. On March 14, we had our first two fatalities. The city finally shut down on March 17. Probably a little too late, and even then only because Cuomo forced the mayors hand.
I haven’t looked this up yet, but my sister, who lives in Philly, just told me she read that people looking at the data have suggested that if the City shut one week earlier, the death toll would have been cut in half. If I find that I’ll post a link.
At the height, the only sound we heard was ambulances. And they didn’t stop. Three hospitals run by Northwell were over 100% of ICU capacity, even though they had added 1 or 2 ICUs in each. But they didn’t have staff for all that. So patients weren’t getting as much attention as ICU patients normally get. This thing spreads easily in tight spaces and the hospitals weren’t equipped with proper facilities to prevent the spread. So people who came in without the virus were exposed to it.
Yeah, the numbers are off. Not that far off, though.

Shafpocalypse Now wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:36 pm

Bennyonesix1 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:06 pm This all just goes to show that this whole thing was a NYC problem. They acted as a pump to spread infected theough the NE. And they let their old folks die in the homes.

All to keep the subways open and the right of NYC residents to travel.

It shows nothing about the SARS 2 Rsubzero or fatality rates.

You've never been sexier

nafod wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:24 pm

Bennyonesix1 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:06 pm It shows nothing about the SARS 2 Rsubzero or fatality rates.

Rsubzero is absolutely a function of the virus and the society.

The Ginger Beard Man wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:34 am The deal with the subway is we have over 5 million rides a day. The trains get packed and so Illnesses spread very easily. People who stand are all holding onto the same steel poles, and they don’t get cleaned all that often. I often ride late at night, anywhere from 1030pm to 130am, and I’m not guaranteed a seat, although I usually get one.

Not sure about racial susceptibility. But keep in mind we have a lot of housing projects, tall buildings with residents, often minorities, packed into elevators together.
And immigrant families often pack too many people into small houses. One source my wife had at Elmhurst hospital in Queens was point of contact for families. She would call people to say someone was sick, and stay apart as much as possible. But they’re packed in, and often one or more people in that home already had symptoms.

My dad grew up like that. Shared a bedroom with his 3 brothers. An aunt and uncle and cousins upstairs, a spinster aunt in a basement apartment, in a house in Brooklyn his immigrant grandparents had bought. It’s common.

The Ginger Beard Man wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:36 am And the governor signed an executive order requiring nursing homes to take back people even if they were still sick.
Stupid.
I read the other night that in Italy, 40% of the fatalities were in nursing homes.

The Ginger Beard Man wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:34 am The deal with the subway is we have over 5 million rides a day. The trains get packed and so Illnesses spread very easily. People who stand are all holding onto the same steel poles, and they don’t get cleaned all that often. I often ride late at night, anywhere from 1030pm to 130am, and I’m not guaranteed a seat, although I usually get one.

Not sure about racial susceptibility. But keep in mind we have a lot of housing projects, tall buildings with residents, often minorities, packed into elevators together.
And immigrant families often pack too many people into small houses. One source my wife had at Elmhurst hospital in Queens was point of contact for families. She would call people to say someone was sick, and stay apart as much as possible. But they’re packed in, and often one or more people in that home already had symptoms.

My dad grew up like that. Shared a bedroom with his 3 brothers. An aunt and uncle and cousins upstairs, a spinster aunt in a basement apartment, in a house in Brooklyn his immigrant grandparents had bought. It’s common.

The Ginger Beard Man wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:50 am Ridership is down to about 270,000 per day. They reduced service, so the trains are still crowded. And overtaken by homeless, and filthier than ever. Time is way up.
I’m now unemployed, so no trains for me.
The person I was most worried is a 70 year old uncle who had triple bypass last summer, still smokes, and wasn’t taking this seriously. He was riding the subway to work the first two weeks of this shit.
But the city is so quiet he started driving. No traffic, and street parking available in Greenwich Village- that’s unheard of. Fuckers gonna live forever.

The Ginger Beard Man wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:51 am Antibody testing is starting to become available. But they are prioritizing first responders and hospital workers.

Bennyonesix1 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:59 am

The Ginger Beard Man wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:51 am Antibody testing is starting to become available. But they are prioritizing first responders and hospital workers.

FWIW they've done some randomized tests in NYC and found unsurprisingly a sig % of ppl had been infected without symptoms.