IGX

In addition I didn't say the cases will spike due to protests... I said I suppose there could still be an increase. The wording was chosen carefully. We didn't see a spike in deaths from those evil anti-lockdown armed terrorists and we might not see one from our stunningly brave peacefull urban demolition specialists.

Schlegel wrote: ↑Sat Jun 13, 2020 1:47 am All all 4 states lying? Deaths are very very hard to hide because the state reports what location the death was in and local hospitals will tell reporters how many deaths they've had. Where I am the running and current numbers are on the hospital's web site, you don't even need to ask for it.

FYI, I dont watch Fox. I just know the difference between a number that has meaning only when given context (positive tests) and a concrete number with easy interpretation (daily deaths) where all you need is the total resident population.

OK. I think I’m missing your point. Clearly. Are you saying we should reopen everything, and that the quarantine was unnecessary?

No, not at all. I'm saying relatively careful reopening appears to be actually working. Things remained the same after a partial reopening. The protests are a giant experiment. 4 weeks after they started we will be in a position to reasses our standards for the young and healthy. There is no doubt that quarantine is the right thing for the sick, elderly, or immunocompromised for some time to come.

Number of positive tests only has meaning in relation to total number of tests, as well as if the test population is in the same region as the older tests and of a similar sample selection of the population. Some scary county spikes reported ealier have been because everybody in one prison or everybody in a meatpacking plant was tested in one week. So on it's own the number of new cases means nothing.... if it's up 50% and you had a constant number of random tests that's bad. If you doubled the number of random tests then only getting 50% more cases is good. I noticed the panicky reports on reopened states almost without exception cite only the new case numbers... they leave out hospitalizations and deaths which are far more resistant to misinterpretation.

Another aspect of the reopening argument is the medical one. A lot of medical procedures that were postponed due to the lockdown have gone from routine to urgent. Also a lot of medical care is difficult to perform remotely (ex. involving pregnancy). Finally, there are some significant mental health costs to prolonged isolation, especially among the elderly.

So a doctor friend of mine here in NYC said this morning that only 15 new cases have been linked to the protests. That doesn’t necessarily mean there aren’t more; it depends on how well they’re doing with contact tracing. And he said it could take another week to see.

Scott Gottlieb on CNBC last night said he thinks the spikes in Arizona and Texas are being caused by the heat- that people are going inside for the AC, and it spreads more readily indoors.
I think this is the vid:

https://youtu.be/mPPX15eKzFo

And in Florida cases are up but hospitalizations are apparently down.

The case of the two women working at a hair salon who tested positive...but they and the customers wore masks and maintained social distance as much as they could. No other positive cases out of 146 customers and other workers.

Masks and distancing work.

nafod wrote: ↑Sat Jun 13, 2020 4:16 am The case of the two women working at a hair salon who tested positive...but they and the customers wore masks and maintained social distance as much as they could. No other positive cases out of 146 customers and other workers.

Masks and distancing work.

Maybe, but it's probably more complicated than that. Had a long conversation the other day with a hairdresser. Her assessment that going back to work would decrease her pre-COVID income by half (largely because the disenfection and cleaning requirements effectively reduced her real hourly wage) seemed pretty legit. She didn't seem confident about her near term future.

Exclusive: Coronavirus began 'as an accident' in Chinese lab, says former MI6 boss

Sir Richard Dearlove tells Telegraph's Planet Normal podcast that new scientific report suggests key elements of the virus were 'inserted'


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... d-chinese/

AZ getting brutalized. Warmer climates may not apply, but definitely not in places where people stay indoors in the summer.

I hadn't heard that, so I looked it up: Arizona recorded 2,392 cases, Florida reported 2,783 new cases, and Texas tracked 2,622. Doesn't seem like warm weather helps much, at least if, as you say, people spend most of their time in AC enclosures.

That said, there's no turning around on this, no one will comply with an additional stay at home bullshit.

NYT: New York is a diseased shithole pumping disease into the heartland.

Travel From New York City Seeded Wave of U.S. Outbreaks

The coronavirus outbreak in New York City became the primary source of infections around the United States, researchers have found.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/n ... break.html

nafod wrote: ↑Sat Jun 13, 2020 4:16 am The case of the two women working at a hair salon who tested positive..

Shit.
Week ago i went to hair saloon, and she was without mask. But i had not right to say something about it to her, because i was without mask too.
Now i little nervous :)

This has already caused societal destruction and it's getting worse. Peter Hitchens describes some of this in his column:

"During these long dreamy weeks we have bit by bit forgotten who we were before, how we lived, what we thought, what we expected of life. I believe that forces hostile to our country, its history and nature, have seen this as an opportunity. Probably incredulous to begin with, they realised the British people really had gone soft, accepting absurd and humiliating diktats, believing the most ridiculous claims.

They also noticed that formerly great institutions and forces – the church, Parliament, the police, the armed services, much of Fleet Street, the universities – submitted to it without so much as a sigh. So did what remained of our great industrial and commercial companies.

There was, on top of this, an increasingly feverish atmosphere. Deprived of normal routines and circles of friendship, many people became strained and suggestible.

They were discontented but not allowed to protest against the thing which was oppressing them, the shutdown, since from every quarter they were told it was justified. Almost any spark could have ignited this rich mixture. "

https://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk ... hange.html

The great Codevilla on lung aids

https://americanmind.org/essays/the-covid-coup/

Bennyonesix1 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:56 pm The great Codevilla on lung aids

https://americanmind.org/essays/the-covid-coup/

I stopped reading at this sentence.

From early March 2020 on, the best-known authorities on epidemics—the World Health Organization and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control—presented the COVID-19 respiratory disease to the Western world as a danger equivalent to the plague.

I assume the rest of it is bullshit too.

nafod wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:28 pm

Bennyonesix1 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:56 pm The great Codevilla on lung aids

https://americanmind.org/essays/the-covid-coup/

I stopped reading at this sentence.

From early March 2020 on, the best-known authorities on epidemics—the World Health Organization and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control—presented the COVID-19 respiratory disease to the Western world as a danger equivalent to the plague.

I assume the rest of it is bullshit too.

From the WHO statement on March 7th:

"Allowing uncontrolled spread should not be a choice of any government, as it will harm not only the citizens of that country but affect other countries as well.

We must stop, contain, control, delay and reduce the impact of this virus at every opportunity. Every person has the capacity to contribute, to protect themselves, to protect others, whether in the home, the community, the healthcare system, the workplace or the transport system.

Leaders at all levels and in all walks of life must step forward to bring about this commitment across society. "

https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/07 ... ng-100-000

nafod wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:28 pm

Bennyonesix1 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:56 pm The great Codevilla on lung aids

https://americanmind.org/essays/the-covid-coup/

I stopped reading at this sentence.

From early March 2020 on, the best-known authorities on epidemics—the World Health Organization and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control—presented the COVID-19 respiratory disease to the Western world as a danger equivalent to the plague.

I assume the rest of it is bullshit too.

Hahahah. Good you loser. Good.

Regarding the plague...

Without treatment, plague results in the death of 30% to 90% of those infected.Death, if it occurs, is typically within ten days. With treatment the risk of death is around 10%.


No one was claiming anything close to this ever. Except B16.

nafod wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:01 pm Regarding the plague...

Without treatment, plague results in the death of 30% to 90% of those infected.Death, if it occurs, is typically within ten days. With treatment the risk of death is around 10%.


No one was claiming anything close to this ever. Except B16.

Everyone everyone was terrified in March, April, and May. The message was crystal clear, this disease will KILL you and the people you love. It was marketed as a plague and we broke the back of a huge percentage of the lower and middle class addressing it.

It's real, it's dangerous, but the cure of unprecedented government control of essentially all aspects of our lives (other than abortion and rioting) resulted in terrible and long reverberating consequences. Worth it?

Personally, I'm very grateful to have learned that the freedom to live and work honestly, decently, and freely can be instantly removed by government diktat. It's a terrifying realization but I'm glad to have the knowledge.

Bennyonesix1 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:56 pm The great Codevilla on lung aids

https://americanmind.org/essays/the-covid-coup/

Angelo M. Codevilla is a senior fellow of the Claremont Institute and professor emeritus of International Relations at Boston University.

He received his B.A. from Rutgers University, an M.A. from Notre Dame University, and his Ph.D. in Security Studies, U.S. Foreign Policy, and Political Theory from the Claremont Graduate School.

At Boston University since 1995, Professor Codevilla has been a U.S. Naval Officer, an Assistant Professor at the Grove City College and North Dakota State College, a U.S. Foreign Service Officer, and a member of President-Elect Reagan's Transition Teams within the U.S. Department of State. He dealt with Western Europe and with matters affecting the U.S. Intelligence Community. He served as a U.S. Senate Staff member dealing with oversight of the intelligence services, a professorial lecturer at Georgetown University and a Senior Research Fellow for the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.

https://americanmind.org/author/angelo-codevilla/
And quite the background in epidemiological modeling and statistical analysis too.

Communist party admits to leveraging COVID-19 to remove Trump: https://thenationalpulse.com/exclusive/ ... eat-trump/

Here's the video, from CGTN. CGTN is a group of six international multi-language television channels owned and operated by China Central Television (CCTV), a state-controlled media organization in China.