IGX

I don't see any reason why, with a huge pro-Ukrainian population even in the East, they can't make life miserable for Russia for decades. Hell, at the peak of Soviet power it took them until 1955 to put down the Ukrainian resistance. You have this vision of Putin as a master mind but to me he's a clumsy dolt who's creating a Somalia on his front step.

If the chunk of dirt in Fatty's vid has a Ukrainian or a Russian flag flying over it, will there be any consequential difference in the day to day life of the people?

From the separatists perspective is this conflict about something tangible or is it about the intangible feelings of affiliation with Russia vs. Ukraine?

I understand that geopolitical chess game shit matters, but I'd like to understand how the separatists think.

DrDonkeyLove wrote:If the chunk of dirt in Fatty's vid has a Ukrainian or a Russian flag flying over it, will there be any consequential difference in the day to day life of the people?

From the separatists perspective is this conflict about something tangible or is it about the intangible feelings of affiliation with Russia vs. Ukraine?

IMHO it's the difference between being a part of a country that's slowly falling apart economically, and one that's rapidly falling even further apart. Not a hard choice. Access to the Black Sea has been a Russian goal they've already proven that they'll spend centuries trying to achieve.

Go back and look at one of the many maps on this thread. Russia already has access the Black Sea.

Fat Cat wrote:I don't see any reason why, with a huge pro-Ukrainian population even in the East, they can't make life miserable for Russia for decades. Hell, at the peak of Soviet power it took them until 1955 to put down the Ukrainian resistance. You have this vision of Putin as a master mind but to me he's a clumsy dolt who's creating a Somalia on his front step.

Dude they've be been slugging it out with the Chechens off and on for almost 20 years. I don't think a long running guerrilla war would phase them. Particularly one that involved their national interest and involved Russian speakers.

Mass expulsions on both sides, like the end of WWII or what the Greeks and Turks engaged in after WWI, would not be out of the realm of possibilities.

Nor do I think Putin is some great master mind. Our inept politicians make him look like one though. We blundered into this and provoked this scenario, now Putin looks like he has the stones to finish it. The blame goes all the way back to Clinton, then Bush and now President jug ears.

Fat Cat wrote:Go back and look at one of the many maps on this thread. Russia already has access the Black Sea.

Define access? Access means Ports, the means the ability to get stuff to and from them and the ability to defend them. Crimea gives them the ports. Eastern Ukraine gives them the other two items.

Crimea has been fought over for centuries for a reason. It is strategically the second most important piece of dirt on the Black Sea.

Batboy2/75 wrote:Dude they've be been slugging it out with the Chechens off and on for almost 20 years. I don't think a long running guerrilla war would phase them. Particularly one that involved their national interest and involved Russian speakers.

Every ethnic minority in Russia is looking for the exit right now, and the Chechens, Dagestanis, Ingushetians, Crimean Tartars, etc. etc. will all be happy to step back up to the plate the instant they think Moscow's attention has wavered. Are they willing to? Perhaps. Will it be in the long term interest of Russia to do so? No, I can't see how it is. Rouble hit it's lowest since the 1998 revaluation today; the whole thing is bad business and Crimea has always been exceptionally poor--they are taking on the welfare of millions with no way to recoup the loss.

Batboy2/75 wrote:Mass expulsions on both sides, like the end of WWII or what the Greeks and Turks engaged in after WWI, would not be out of the realm of possibilities.

You're right that it's possible, but mass expulsions are one of the UN definitions of genocide [Article 2(c)]. If that became the path forward, you could do it cleanly with a mutual partition, and without all the blowback. That was why I was asking Bill about either an autonomous zone or partition.

Batboy2/75 wrote:Nor do I think Putin is some great master mind. Our inept politicians make him look like one though. We blundered into this and provoked this scenario, now Putin looks like he has the stones to finish it. The blame goes all the way back to Clinton, then Bush and now President jug ears.

I'm not sure how the US has provoked the situation in Ukraine. You can't have it both ways, either we are a nefarious Svengali pulling strings behind the scenes or we are inept dullard stumbling from crisis to crisis. Which is it?

Fat Cat wrote:Go back and look at one of the many maps on this thread. Russia already has access the Black Sea.

The map I posted earlier isn't showing up, this shows something similar:

Direct land access to the Crimea, and possibly to Moldova for their gas exports-- access they don't have to pay the Ukrainians rent for, or really worry about Ukrainian theft from-- is something worth having.

Batboy2/75 wrote:

Fat Cat wrote:Go back and look at one of the many maps on this thread. Russia already has access the Black Sea.

Define access? Access means Ports, the means the ability to get stuff to and from them and the ability to defend them. Crimea gives them the ports. Eastern Ukraine gives them the other two items.

Crimea has been fought over for centuries for a reason. It is strategically the second most important piece of dirt on the Black Sea.

Even prior to the annexation of Crimea, the Russian Federation had ports on the Black Sea, most importantly at Novorossiysk--the real New Russia, BTW--which is where they were building the replacement to Sevastopol for their Black Sea Fleet when the lease was set to run out in 2017. So not only does Russia not need Eastern Ukraine, or Crimea, it doesn't even need Sevastopol. Now Russia has traded access to a port to ship things they can no longer export and import things they can no longer afford. LOL at Putin's genius, I bet they are already carving his statutes.

Turdacious wrote:

Fat Cat wrote:Go back and look at one of the many maps on this thread. Russia already has access the Black Sea.

The map I posted earlier isn't showing up, this shows something similar:

Direct land access to the Crimea, and possibly to Moldova for their gas exports-- access they don't have to pay the Ukrainians rent for, or really worry about Ukrainian theft from-- is something worth having.

Turd, I don't really like talking with you because you always change your position. Your exact words were "access to the Black Sea". I pointed out that they already had direct, land access to the Black Sea. Now you are talking about "direct land access to the Crimea" which is a different question.

Fat Cat wrote:

Turdacious wrote:

Fat Cat wrote:Go back and look at one of the many maps on this thread. Russia already has access the Black Sea.

The map I posted earlier isn't showing up, this shows something similar:

Direct land access to the Crimea, and possibly to Moldova for their gas exports-- access they don't have to pay the Ukrainians rent for, or really worry about Ukrainian theft from-- is something worth having.

Turd, I don't really like talking with you because you always change your position. Your exact words were "access to the Black Sea". I pointed out that they already had direct, land access to the Black Sea. Now you are talking about "direct land access to the Crimea" which is a different question.

No, just an unclear statement on my part. I meant 'direct land access to the port at Sevestapol'-- a point the map supports.

We should really get us some direct access to Alaska.

Grandpa's Spells wrote:We should really get us some direct access to Alaska.

I wasn't aware that Canadians were siphoning oil from our pipelines.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2 ... s_disputes

Russia responded to sanctions by basically imposing more sanctions on themselves. This is not a very smart regime.

Pinky wrote:Russia responded to sanctions by basically imposing more sanctions on themselves. This is not a very smart regime.

And the Ukrainians are putting a tax on new gas production-- Russia's dumb, Ukraine is dumber.

WTF...

They said he was on vacation last month :)

Wild Bill wrote:WTF...

Jeek?

He looks like one historical reconstructor :)

Fat Cat wrote:

Batboy2/75 wrote:Dude they've be been slugging it out with the Chechens off and on for almost 20 years. I don't think a long running guerrilla war would phase them. Particularly one that involved their national interest and involved Russian speakers.

Every ethnic minority in Russia is looking for the exit right now, and the Chechens, Dagestanis, Ingushetians, Crimean Tartars, etc. etc. will all be happy to step back up to the plate the instant they think Moscow's attention has wavered. Are they willing to? Perhaps. Will it be in the long term interest of Russia to do so? No, I can't see how it is. Rouble hit it's lowest since the 1998 revaluation today; the whole thing is bad business and Crimea has always been exceptionally poor--they are taking on the welfare of millions with no way to recoup the loss.

Batboy2/75 wrote:Mass expulsions on both sides, like the end of WWII or what the Greeks and Turks engaged in after WWI, would not be out of the realm of possibilities.

You're right that it's possible, but mass expulsions are one of the UN definitions of genocide [Article 2(c)]. If that became the path forward, you could do it cleanly with a mutual partition, and without all the blowback. That was why I was asking Bill about either an autonomous zone or partition.

Batboy2/75 wrote:Nor do I think Putin is some great master mind. Our inept politicians make him look like one though. We blundered into this and provoked this scenario, now Putin looks like he has the stones to finish it. The blame goes all the way back to Clinton, then Bush and now President jug ears.

I'm not sure how the US has provoked the situation in Ukraine. You can't have it both ways, either we are a nefarious Svengali pulling strings behind the scenes or we are inept dullard stumbling from crisis to crisis. Which is it?

I agree the Russians are paying a steep price in the short run. In the long run, the Russian are betting (IMO correctly) the spineless Europeans will cave first. Short term pain for long term gain.

I have never stated that we are a "nefarious Svengali" or anything close to it. I have from day stated that we have acted like total rubes when it comes to the former Soviet Bloc and Russia. The USA and the West provoked the situation because they decided that history doesn't matter and they thought Putin would react just like they would. All one would have to do is read up a little to know that any expansion of the EU or NATO would provoke the Russians. A people that have obsessed over their sphere of influence and security for centuries.

Fat Cat wrote:

Batboy2/75 wrote:

Fat Cat wrote:Go back and look at one of the many maps on this thread. Russia already has access the Black Sea.

Define access? Access means Ports, the means the ability to get stuff to and from them and the ability to defend them. Crimea gives them the ports. Eastern Ukraine gives them the other two items.

Crimea has been fought over for centuries for a reason. It is strategically the second most important piece of dirt on the Black Sea.

Even prior to the annexation of Crimea, the Russian Federation had ports on the Black Sea, most importantly at Novorossiysk--the real New Russia, BTW--which is where they were building the replacement to Sevastopol for their Black Sea Fleet when the lease was set to run out in 2017. So not only does Russia not need Eastern Ukraine, or Crimea, it doesn't even need Sevastopol. Now Russia has traded access to a port to ship things they can no longer export and import things they can no longer afford. LOL at Putin's genius, I bet they are already carving his statutes.

Who cares where plan B is or was. Crimea is the strategic lynch pin for the north Black sea. It also, just so happens to be sitting on untapped natural resources.

Batboy2/75 wrote:Putin will point to these videos (real or faked) and he will say "This is why we suffer under sanctions." "This is why we are supporting the Separatist"

This video like a toy comparing to others. I just didn't wanted post them here.

Here for example yong mother with child (NSFW) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MjpyjWvt-Hc
And i saw her pictures of year ago where she is still pregnant and happy.
There were videos and pics of burned children, ... etc.

There a lot of civil victims, there a lot of refugees in Russia. They came even to my town, although it is about 10 thousands km from Ukraine.

Finally, some western journalist are starting to take notice of Kiev's little Nazi militia problem. These are not Russian propaganda rags.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... of_freedom

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... tists.html

We need to ask ourselves, just who are we fucking supporting in the Ukraine?

The Nazi tendencies have been written about already a year ago, both in Russian and Western press. The change in rhetoric is due to the mining tax introduced by the Ukranian government. In the next few months the story will drift from Ukraine the Victim to anything from Ukraine the Oppressor of Human Rights to Ukraine the Manufacturer the Weapons of Mass Destruction. Unless some companies get concessions.

Smet wrote:The Nazi tendencies have been written about already a year ago, both in Russian and Western press. The change in rhetoric is due to the mining tax introduced by the Ukranian government. In the next few months the story will drift from Ukraine the Victim to anything from Ukraine the Oppressor of Human Rights to Ukraine the Manufacturer the Weapons of Mass Destruction. Unless some companies get concessions.

Are you moskal?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvVBRbnv0ew[/youtube]