IGX

There's something crucially important about the initial trajectory of the virus. Who knows what at this point? But something modified the slope of the initial impetus behind whatever Gompertz curve the virus follows in a given geographic area.

Bennyonesix1 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:33 am There's something crucially important about the initial trajectory of the virus.

Isn't it that way with every pandemic?

Well, yes. But I brought it up because the variations seem extreme even in regions quite close to one another. And there were no meaningful actions taken by any of them to modify the slope at that point.

I would bet money it is as simple as the severity of last years flu season. I have graphs for the region but fuck if I know how to post a photo from iphones here.

But it could be something else. Something that might help mitigate the spread in the future.

Assuming an "outbreak" is a spread and not an "activation" of previously "dormant" infections.

At 10-20% population resistance a vaccine is almost entirely useless. Imagine the number of innoculations required to reduce the threshold in any way at all, let alone 5%.

"Our inferences result in herd immunity thresholds around 10-20%, considerably lower than the minimum coverage needed to interrupt transmission by random vaccination, which for R_0 higher than 2.5 is estimated above 60%. We emphasize that the classical formula, 1-1⁄R_0 , remains applicable to describe herd immunity thresholds for random vaccination, but not for immunity induced by infection which is naturally selective. These findings have profound consequences for the governance of the current pandemic given that some populations may be close to achieving herd immunity despite being under more or less strict social distancing measures."

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20160762v1

Someone please explain this incredible drop in respiratory viruses during the Time of Covid.

https://syndromictrends.com/metric/pane ... anism/main

To me it screams massive over-diagnosis of covid.

Unless lockdowns and masks work for ever single respiratory illness BUT covid.

I know dormancy/latency of respiratory viruses is a contentious topic. But here is a nice discussion of vitD's role in protecting from Covid and what NASA's experiences with Epstein Bar and Zoster can teach us.

It's not proven but it really is possible that put genomes are full of latent viruses and factors like stress and low vitD and obesity (v important as it destroys overall health and reduces vitD) cause them to periodically explode in populations.

"Some viruses, such as Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), varicella-zoster virus (VZV), and herpes-simplex-virus-1 (HSV-1), are known to persist in the body and can reactivate in response to certain stressors.

Several case studies show evidence of VZV reactivation with SARS-CoV-2 infection (32, 33). We and others have documented factors that contribute to viral reactivation in astronauts during spaceflight and in spaceflight analog studies, such as those with crews wintering over in Antarctica.

The advantage of these models is that viral reactivation can be studied in otherwise healthy individuals who are exposed to environmental and psychological stressors that result in latent viral reactivation (34–38). Some of the factors that influence viral reactivation in spaceflight and spaceflight analogs include cardiorespiratory fitness level and skeletal muscle endurance (39), stress (40), and stress combined with vitamin D status (41).

Astronauts with greater cardiorespiratory fitness had a 29% less risk of latent virus reactivation, and crewmembers with greater preflight upper body muscular endurance were ∼40% less likely to shed latent viruses during long-duration spaceflights, especially EBV and VZV (39).

In a vitamin D supplementation study, subjects wintering over in Antarctica with lower vitamin D status and higher serum cortisol shed more EBV in their saliva than did subjects with higher vitamin D concentrations (41). Also of note in that study, the change in serum 25(OH)D response after either a daily 2000-IU or weekly 10,000-IU supplement of vitamin D depended on both BMI and baseline 25(OH)D concentration. In this, and other (42) studies, subjects with a higher BMI had less of a serum 25(OH)D response to supplementation, possibly because of decreased bioavailability of vitamin D in adipose tissue.

Additionally, subjects with lower baseline concentrations of vitamin D had a greater elevation of serum 25(OH)D after supplementation. The association between vitamin D and viral reactivation was only present when serum cortisol concentrations were high.

These data suggest that higher vitamin D status, along with physical fitness, may help protect against reactivation of latent viruses in high-stress environments, and the amount of vitamin D required to increase serum 25(OH)D depends on BMI and baseline status."

https://academic.oup.com/jn/article/doi ... 33/5876210

That’s a cool piece of work. One thing about the current virus, though, is that it doesn’t seem to be bothered by the summer which goes along with people getting sunlight and vitamin D. Unlike regular flus.

It's been known since the 50's that respiratory viruses follow different curves based on latitude. The different bands of latitude are separate ecosystems. And the US is currently undergoing the normal pattern in its southern regions. In the southern latitudes of the northern hemisphere vitD levels are less variable and thus give rise to a lower and more prolonged epidemic curve.

Well, that and its damn hot down here so we are all together in the air conditioning.

The virus spreads just as fast in areas without AC.

And the phenomenon was noticed prior to AC.

Jfc let's do another 750,000 of these everyday forever. SCIENCE!

Jayson Stark
@jaysonst
Here is MLB’s official update on the #Phillies, #Yankees and #Marlins.

It includes the revelation that two of the Phillies’ results appear to be false positives.

The Phillies will now resume play Monday against the Yankees, with the Marlins returning Tuesday in Baltimore.

Cross immunity possible via exposure to pet (cat and dog) coronaviruses.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7215164/

Smart dude superimposed the animal corona virus and SARS2

Long involved paper about blood types and infections etc etc.

But, type O has shown resistance to coronaviruses

"SARS and ABO
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is caused by the SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV), an RNA virus. The original SARS outbreak in the winter of 2002 to 2003 infected >8,000 individuals worldwide, with a fatality rate of 10% (292). Like other human coronaviruses, SARS-CoV infects the mucosal epithelium, causing an acute respiratory illness often accompanied by gastroenteritis. In a Hong Kong outbreak, there was an apparent association between disease transmission and ABO type (293). An epidemiology study of 34/45 hospital workers who contracted SARS after exposure to a single index patient showed that most of the infected individuals (23/34) were non-group O individuals (groups A, B, and AB). Group O individuals were relatively resistant to infection, with an OR of 0.18 (95% CI, 0.04 to 0.81; P = 0.03)."

https://cmr.asm.org/content/28/3/801

It's just definitionally not a particularly deadly disease. And spare us all your anecdotes.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.08471


"We quantified the probability of developing symptoms (respiratory or fever \geq 37.5 °C) and critical disease (requiring intensive care or resulting in death) of SARS-CoV-2 positive subjects. 5,484 contacts of SARS-CoV-2 index cases detected in Lombardy, Italy were analyzed, and positive subjects were ascertained via nasal swabs and serological assays. 73.9% of all infected individuals aged less than 60 years did not develop symptoms (95% confidence interval: 71.8-75.9%). The risk of symptoms increased with age. 6.6% of infected subjects older than 60 years had critical disease, with males at significantly higher risk."

nafod wrote: ↑Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:03 pm That’s a cool piece of work. One thing about the current virus, though, is that it doesn’t seem to be bothered by the summer which goes along with people getting sunlight and vitamin D. Unlike regular flus.

Vitamin D Deficiency and Seasonal Variation in an Adult South Florida Population

...Our goal was to establish the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in south Florida (U.S.), a region of year-round sunny weather. At the end of the winter, 212 men and women attending an internal medicine clinic at a local county hospital were enrolled for measurements of 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D], 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D, and PTH; 99 participants returned at the end of summer. The mean (±SD) winter 25(OH)D concentration was 24.9 ± 8.7 ng/ml (62.3 ± 21.8 nmol/liter) in men and 22.4 ± 8.2 ng/ml (56.0 ± 20.5 nmol/liter) in women. In winter, the prevalence of hypovitaminosis D, defined as 25(OH)D less than 20 ng/ml (50 nmol/liter), was 38% and 40% in men and women, respectively. In the 99 subjects who returned for the end of summer visit, the mean 25(OH)D concentration was 31.0 ± 11.0 ng/ml (77.5 ± 27.5 nmol/liter) in men and 25.0 ± 9.4 ng/ml (62.5 ± 23.5 nmol/liter) in women. Seasonal variation represented a 14% summer increase in 25(OH)D concentrations in men and a 13% increase in women, both of which were statistically significant. The prevalence of hypovitaminosis D is considerable even in southern latitudes and should be taken into account in the evaluation of postmenopausal and male osteoporosis.

Even at the end of summer D3 levels were ridiculously low. And that's in the Sunshine State with the beach culture.

Yep. And old age and obesity both retard the ability to generate suff vitD from sun.

Nevertheless, remember suff vitD does not make one "immune" in the everyday sense. But it does reduce severity of symptoms. I think we can say that as a population the vitD levels were suff to reduce death and severe symptoms in that geographic area.

Absent down-mutation this would be the explanation for the differing epi curves between latitudes.

Edit Ignore post. I can't link the while exchange because twitter is made by idiots. End edit.


This is a fascinating exchange btwn Balloux and Cummins. After thinking about it, I think they are in agreement but misunderstanding each other or using words differently.

There may (prob) be additional future "waves" as with all other resp viruses but each subs will be less virulent and severe



Twitter is just a junk app. But I hope the above links to the convo b

https://academic.oup.com/advances/artic ... 96/5476413

"Conclusions and Future Perspectives

The tight regulation of zinc homeostasis both systemically and intracellularly indicates that zinc plays an essential role in human health. Although zinc is a component of ∼10% of the human proteome, zinc in different forms (free compared with protein-bound) can stimulate a variety of signaling events, including the antiviral response. In vitro studies suggest that free zinc may possess potent antiviral effects, and are supported by trials of creams, lozenges, and supplements with high free zinc content. Moreover, zinc-binding proteins such as the metallothioneins may possess antiviral roles, although their specific function remains uncertain. Nonetheless, zinc treatment applied at a therapeutic dose and in the right form has the potential to drastically improve the clearance of both chronic and acute viral infections, as well as their accompanying pathologies and symptoms. Consequently, the role of zinc as an antiviral can be separated into 2 categories: 1) zinc supplementation implemented to improve the antiviral response and systemic immunity in patients with zinc deficiency, and 2) zinc treatment performed to specifically inhibit viral replication or infection-related symptoms (75, 78–82, 83, 85–91, 95–101, 103, 104)"

Personally, I'm unconvinced that the HCQ is doing much. But the rest of the regimen: zith and zinc really do help

Zinc as per above.

And the anti-biotics because of the secondary infections in severe cases. Covid looks incredibly like Lemierre's Syndrome of the lungs and not juglar (thank god).

81% in new German study had cross reactive immunity (not the everyday definition) to SARS2 from other corona viruses.

T-cell immunity is almost certainly additive to antibody immunity (diff systems) and this is why we've seen the numbers begin falling at about 15% exposure almost everywhere.


https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-35331/v1


"This is the first work identifying and characterizing SARS-CoV-2-specific and cross-reactive HLA class I and HLA-DR T-cell epitopes in SARS-CoV-2 convalescents (n = 180) as well as unexposed individuals (n = 185) and confirming their relevance for immunity and COVID-19 disease course. SARS-CoV-2-specific T-cell epitopes enabled detection of post-infectious T-cell immunity, even in seronegative convalescents. Cross-reactive SARS-CoV-2 T-cell epitopes revealed preexisting T-cell responses in 81% of unexposed individuals, and validation of similarity to common cold human coronaviruses provided a functional basis for postulated heterologous immunity[9] in SARS-CoV-2 infection[10,11]. "

Bennyonesix1 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 03, 2020 7:40 pm Personally, I'm unconvinced that the HCQ is doing much. But the rest of the regimen: zith and zinc really do help

Zinc as per above.

And the anti-biotics because of the secondary infections in severe cases. Covid looks incredibly like Lemierre's Syndrome of the lungs and not juglar (thank god).

Antibiotics also act as anti-inflammatories which may also play a role as Covid-19 seems to trigger a severe inflammatory response in more serious cases.

Prob from the secondary infections.

If anyone in my family gets seriously ill from this (knock on wood) I am demanding vitD and Zinc supp at lvls just below toxicity and full spectrum massive anti biotics.

HCQ if docs want it. Even if it doesn't work it is harmless.

syaigh wrote: ↑Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:35 pm

Bennyonesix1 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 03, 2020 7:40 pm Personally, I'm unconvinced that the HCQ is doing much. But the rest of the regimen: zith and zinc really do help

Zinc as per above.

And the anti-biotics because of the secondary infections in severe cases. Covid looks incredibly like Lemierre's Syndrome of the lungs and not juglar (thank god).

Antibiotics also act as anti-inflammatories which may also play a role as Covid-19 seems to trigger a severe inflammatory response in more serious cases.

CDC has 6% dying purely from covid last I checked.

That and the worthlessness of the tests and the unexplained collapse of flu and pneu diags makes me think this is in reality about the same size and severity of SARS1 but a massive number of mis- or over-diagnoses have accreted to a normal number of flu and pneu cases.

It's closest to SARS1 and that absolutely wrecked ppl but was limited as far as spread.

I am betting that 6% has similar demos to SARS1 and we don't see the bizarre severity for olds which I think is an artefact of over-diagnosis.

I mean the pattern globally is that deaths from covid match the amount by which countries fell below all cause mortality the year before: areas with mild flu in 2019 had high deaths from covid and areas with bad flu in 2019 had mild deaths.

Which could mean the flu/pneu is taking those it passed over last year and a much smaller number with different demos are dying from SARS2.

But we can't say because the data is so incomplete and delayed.

Edit

What is one to make of this?

We really don't know very much about how these viruses are spread or if they spread or when they spread.

It would be great if we learned more.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ssion=true

Sweden, Which Never Had Lockdown, Sees COVID-19 Cases Plummet as Rest of Europe Suffers Spike

Amid fears over a potential second wave of the novel coronavirus across Europe, new infections in Sweden, where full lockdown measures were not implemented, have mostly declined since late June.

The number of new cases per 100,000 people in Sweden reported over the last 14 days since July 29 dropped by 54 percent from the figure reported over 14 days prior to then, according to the latest report Wednesday from the World Health Organization (WHO).

https://www.newsweek.com/sweden-which-n ... ke-1521626

Shutdowns, social distancing, masks, etc. are fake and gay. The rationale for the shutdown was a one-time delaying action to hit the pause button while we ramped up medical infrastructure. That time has now passed. Open everything.