IGX

Shafpocalypse Now wrote: ↑Sat Jan 15, 2022 3:40 am Extremely opposed the the dying dregs of the soviet bureau wanting to get involved in a hot war with Russia.

No, no, no.

The US is in love with a Unipolar world. A unipolar world is a fantasy.

Reality is that every big power has a sphere of influence.

Ukraine could have been like Finland. Instead they picked the Anglo-sphere. Too bad for them.

nafod wrote: ↑Sun Jan 16, 2022 4:09 amThey should be able to overrun it pretty quick, the question is will it turn into another Afghanistan or Iraq, a slow bleed out. The Ukrainians will likely have a safe haven across the borders like the Taliban did in Pakistan. They’ll get lots of help in intel and weapons too. Finally, the sanctions by the West will be brutal on the Russian economy.

For what? Seems to be a Putin ego thing.

Depends upon how Putin finesses it....

The Russians could take and keep Donbass. Mostly Russian speakers. The few who will cause trouble are a police problem. I've seen interviews of Donbassi cursing Putin for abandoning them. The Ukrainian military is making the land Russian, shell by shell.

Russia then takes central Ukraine. Puts in a puppet state. There will be stay behind forces. Be like the Kavkaz adventures. The Soviets institutional memory of Bandera OUN-B and Forest brothers is still there. It's not that hard to square them away.

If I were Putin I would go to the River Bug, then offer Galicia back to Poland. Offer them "peace keeper" duty there. The Poles had the region stolen from them by Stalin. Poles have a fixation about taking back Polish lands. They took lands from the Slovaks when Hitler took the Sudetenland. Poland has had their lands ripped off so many times that they reflexively want things back. It's almost in their DNA.

The EU will bitch, offer sanctions if the Poles do it. The Poles have to balance that against Polish domestic politics. The Poles don't want the war to spill over their own borders. Putin offers them a fig leaf. The Poles send in forces to keep the peace and reduce domestic problems. It's a benefit for Ukrainians who were mislead by the Anglosphere.

Later the Poles can negotiate with the new Ukraine. Keep it, it was once Polish. Take it back.

The EU is already dicking around in Poland. Trying to make them take in Rapefugees and alien peoples. Screw with their sources of domestic energy. Poland had to endure this crap under Hitler and Stalin and the Soviets. The Poles could endure doing some peace keeping, holding the land in "trust" for Ukraine. Some day give it back.


The US and UK have no ass. They don't stick around. They run away constantly. Russia won't run away. Everyone has permanent interests but some seems more permanent.

In five or ten years the locals will ask what the Anglosphere ever intended for that part of the world. A multipolar world is already a reality. Why not make it happen now, while we are still relatively wealthy, while we can build new relationships based upon reality?

Ronald RayGun wrote: ↑Sun Jan 16, 2022 4:37 am Again, much love and all propers to my Russian peeps, but it strikes the fuck out of me that you guys have a massively over-inflated idea of what value America would get out of going to war with you. Just don't care as much as you're being led to believe.

You are still do not undrestand.
I did not spoke about all Americans.
Not even about all Americans on this forum.
I spoke personally about Nafod.
About his personal wet dream.

Gene wrote: ↑Sun Jan 16, 2022 6:02 am

nafod wrote: ↑Sat Jan 15, 2022 2:09 pm People everywhere should be able to decide their own government, and that includes people that are neighbors of Putin’s Russia. We should be supporting democracy and the right to self determination everywhere on the planet.

So you accept the referendum in Crimea? Two different votes, over ninety percent did not want to work with Petro Poroshenko's "Ukraine is for Ukrainians" government. They wanted to join the Russian Federation.

Will you also accept a referendum in Donetsk and Lugansk/Luhansk? Do you think after so many years of "punishers" and shelling of cities by UAF staff that these people will ever trust Kiev again? Doubt it.

How about 2017 Catalan referendum? Do you support breaking up Spain? Pro independence forces lead the vote. The Spanish smashed it. Where is all of that big talk of self determination and democracy over here in the US?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/755 ... m-results/

So..... how do you feel about the aspirations of East Turkestanians? We call it Xinjian province today. Uighurs. How many are in detention camps? Got any investments in China, Nafod?

Gotta watch that Democracy thing, Nafod. Sometimes voters don't do what you want them to do.

Ukraine is a sovereign democratic country. Russia is getting ready to invade and conquer it. Nothing you wrote above is equivalent to that.

nafod wrote: ↑Sun Jan 16, 2022 2:41 pm Russia is getting ready to invade and conquer it.

Where did you get it from?
How you are measuring Russia's readines to conquer something?
Is Russia more ready now than was year ago?

Is USA ready to conquer Mexico?
Is USA more ready to conquer Mexico than Russia ready to conquer Ukraine?

How are you measure such readines?

nafod wrote: ↑Sun Jan 16, 2022 2:41 pm Ukraine is a sovereign democratic country. Russia is getting ready to invade and conquer it. Nothing you wrote above is equivalent to that.

So Wall Street and Fleet Street want us to believe, Nafod. Ukraine is so sovereign that Joe Biden could hold up a Loan Guarantee in order to get their government to fire a prosecutor. Joe bragged about it in front of the Council of Foreign Relations. His confession is on youtube.

Trump would later threaten to hold up military aid to Ukraine in order to "dig up dirt on Joe Biden". Trump was impeached for doing it. Trump's first impeachment furnished unimpeachable evidence that Ukraine is not a sovereign nation. How did Trump figure he could do this sort of thing? Cause Ukraine works for the US government.

The last time that Russians stormed across a border was in 2008, when Shakaashvili invaded South Ossetia and Abkhasia. Georgia's forces were trained by NATO staff, including US Marines and Army people and to NATO standards. The Russians captured a bunch of NATO stuff after two weeks of head stomping the Georgians. The Russians were in Tblisi, then they went home. Mission accomplished.

Is Russia going to invade Ukraine? I don't think that they need to invade Ukraine. Donbass is under informal Russian control. Crimea is part of the Federation.

Putin has a good domestic situation. His people are wrangling with him about social welfare, like retirement ages. NATO and the US furnish justification for austerity measures. Russia can build more wonder weapons. Putin can justify being a dick to dissidents.

The S-500 Triumph is being perfected and will be built in large numbers. I expect to see a battery of them parked in Cuba, driving around on paved tracks between bunkers. Just to annoy us Americans. The S-500 is a lot like our own ABM system, Nafod. Except it's road mobile. We Americans felt free to put the SM-3 into Romania? Turn abouts fair play.

The US is up to no good in Eastern Europe. The locals have about had it with our bullshit.

Gene wrote: ↑Sun Jan 16, 2022 6:49 pm The US is up to no good in Eastern Europe. The locals have about had it with our bullshit.

That’s 1000% wrong. The Eastern Europeans know that we are what is keeping them from getting violently annexed by Russia, which they don’t want.

And why would they want to rejoin Russia? What possible benefit is there to them to turn their back on the far-freer EU and get used to standing in line for bread again?

Let Russia stick a bunch of missiles in Cuba. So what. We aren’t going to invade Cuba, or Mexico. We also aren’t going to fight in Ukraine. But we will economically turn the screws.

nafod wrote: ↑Sun Jan 16, 2022 9:55 pm

Gene wrote: ↑Sun Jan 16, 2022 6:49 pm The US is up to no good in Eastern Europe. The locals have about had it with our bullshit.

That’s 1000% wrong. The Eastern Europeans know that we are what is keeping them from getting violently annexed by Russia, which they don’t want.

The Russians have 1,000,000 active duty personnel. NATO is three times larger. Even removing the US NATO is bigger than Russia.

When the Russians mobilized to meet the NATO war games last summer, they only mobilized sixteen percent of their active duty people. They barely matched the Ukraine Armed Forces. The Russians would need 540,000 to get the three to one ratio of attack to defense.

Russia is going to take Eastern Europe? Do you read any history books? Do you know how the Red Army took Eastern Europe the last time around? Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and other front line states were softened up first by Nazi occupation. You were fascist fellow travelers or were provided with them. After the Nazis were gone Stalin was free to nation build. That's not the case in 2022. The Eastern Europeans watched the Soviets run home without a fight in the 1990s. Nobody is afraid of Russia, except Neo-Cons.

Russia is taking Europe by selling them goods and services. Russia is Europe's biggest supplier of Natural Gas. The Eastern Europeans are under heavy pressure from Brussels to stop using Coal. Russia sells natural gas at cheaper rates than the US or Qataris, their transportation system is safer and more reliable than seaborne deliveries from the US or Qatar.

The Central and Eastern Europeans didn't need to be Russia's bitch. They could have invested in Nuclear Power. Instead the Germans are scrapping out their nuke plants.

You flatter the US and its role in Eastern Europe. We have a tiny amount of people there. The US is not going to trade New York City and Washington for Warsaw and Kiev. We have nothing else but nuclear weapons to deter Russia. The real deterrence is that Russia could not be bothered taking Eastern Europe. Russia wants Euros. Neo-Cons want glory.

The US is stroking the bishop in Ukraine and in Eastern Europe. We are needlessly pissing everyone off. Much as we did in the Middle East recently, we are going to leave a wreckage behind us.



The Hungarians are growing fed up with Brussels's shit.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59748173

The Poles got payback from Lukashenko, who dumped refugees on their doorstep. The Poles don't want them either.

https://www.bbc.com/news/59348337

nafod wrote: ↑Sun Jan 16, 2022 9:55 pm Let Russia stick a bunch of missiles in Cuba. So what. We aren’t going to invade Cuba, or Mexico. We also aren’t going to fight in Ukraine. But we will economically turn the screws.

The more that we sanction, the more that we create a demand for workarounds. Even Putin has griped about pricing everything in Dollars.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/ ... html?id=11

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... s?from=mdr

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/oil/ira ... trade/6978

Human beings are adaptable creatures.

I don't have the blemish of excessive confidence. Maybe also I speak a little Russian, have friends from over there, and friends from China and Iran. I know human beings when I see them. These three cultures are older than my own, they have Elder knowledge and they are worth working with.

I don't swallow Neo-Con bilge either.

My extended family on my father’s slide is all Slovak, Bosnian, Croatian, etc. Immigratedto Southwest PA and became coal miners. On my mom’s side, my Aunt’s family escaped from East Germany and the Iron Curtain by crossing a River at night. Big State U has thousands of people here that don’t trace their heritage to the Mayflower, including Iranians and Chinese and everyone else, and I’m friends with many.

Maybe my sample pool is far, far bigger than yours.

We need pics to prove who is more Slavic.

nafod wrote: ↑Mon Jan 17, 2022 2:17 pm My extended family on my father’s slide is all Slovak, Bosnian, Croatian, etc. Immigrated to Southwest PA and became coal miners.

You sound like a Hillman or Frick with your "etc" remark. I'm hoping that you're showing endearment. Probably, but it could be interpreted as a person with WASP values crapping on their origins. I know quite a few former rural people who try to be more Establishment than Establishment.

nafod wrote: ↑Mon Jan 17, 2022 2:17 pm Maybe my sample pool is far, far bigger than yours.

Knowing these people why do you believe that you have a right to meddle? I don't believe that you believe that, Nafod, I just don't understand why your thoughtfulness does not scale up to a national policy.

Gene wrote: ↑Tue Jan 18, 2022 6:09 am with your "etc" remark

You ever been to southwest PA? I’d run out of computer memory before running out of ethnicities.

It seems like the pro-Putin crowd are willfully ignoring that any conflict the US would get involved in would be predicated on a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Putin's intentions aren't really something you have to theorize about, because if he doesn't invade, there won't be an issue.

The workaround here is you can have obviously Russian belligerents from Wagner Group or wherever and Putin denies they're Russian, but I don't know how much credit he's going to get singing that song this time around when he eventually admitted it last time.

Invasion is absolutely useless.
I can't understand what benefits could be from it.

In any case, Russian troops on the border is fake, photos wich are circulating in American media were done about 300-500km from border.


Why ivade at all if it is easier just recognize oficially Donbas?

Wild Bill wrote: ↑Tue Jan 18, 2022 8:23 pm Invasion is absolutely useless.
I can't understand what benefits could be from it.

In any case, Russian troops on the border is fake, photos wich are circulating in American media were done about 300-500km from border.


Why ivade at all if it is easier just recognize oficially Donbas?

I'm curious what is driving this timeline. What do you think? As in, why is this happening NOW? It's been the case for almost a decade that FSR would prefer a friendlier administration in Kiev, and they made their displeasure plain when they annexed Crimea. What is going on NOW that is so important that Putin would risk invading Ukraine? Because I agree with you that it's very difficult to see what Putin could gain from it, it's not like Russia doesn't have enough territory or access to warm water ports. Putin may be unpredictable but he's not stupid, so what is the play, and why now?

Fat Cat wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 1:34 am

Wild Bill wrote: ↑Tue Jan 18, 2022 8:23 pm Invasion is absolutely useless.
I can't understand what benefits could be from it.

In any case, Russian troops on the border is fake, photos wich are circulating in American media were done about 300-500km from border.


Why ivade at all if it is easier just recognize oficially Donbas?

I'm curious what is driving this timeline. What do you think? As in, why is this happening NOW? It's been the case for almost a decade that FSR would prefer a friendlier administration in Kiev, and they made their displeasure plain when they annexed Crimea. What is going on NOW that is so important that Putin would risk invading Ukraine? Because I agree with you that it's very difficult to see what Putin could gain from it, it's not like Russia doesn't have enough territory or access to warm water ports. Putin may be unpredictable but he's not stupid, so what is the play, and why now?

I think he do not planning any invasion.
I think all the hype surrounding the invasion is entirely an American invention :)

why now?
Do not know.
Perhaps to distract people from internal problems.

Fat Cat,

When the Americans first announced the impending invasion (a couple of months ago), the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense said that there were no Russian troops on the border, and that this was all Russian propaganda aimed at scare the brave Ukrainians.

Then it seems that Biden explained to Zelensky what he should say and it began.


I predict that in about a month, when invasion still not happened, Biden will make a loud statement about a diplomatic victory.
That it was only thanks to him that the invasion did not happen.

Wild Bill wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:58 am I predict that in about a month, when invasion still not happened, Biden will make a loud statement about a diplomatic victory.
That it was only thanks to him that the invasion did not happen.

Remember this tweet!

I think it is more beneficial for both Russian and NATO to keep things as they are, making all kinds of statements and threats and playing with the tension. No real involvement, but a lot of potential for scoring political points.

Sangoma wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 7:18 am I think it is more beneficial for both Russian and NATO to keep things as they are, making all kinds of statements and threats and playing with the tension. No real involvement, but a lot of potential for scoring political points.

Replace those two with any pair of antagonists in almost any conflict and you'll have a big piece of the puzzle.

Wild Bill wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:08 am

Wild Bill wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:58 am I predict that in about a month, when invasion still not happened, Biden will make a loud statement about a diplomatic victory.
That it was only thanks to him that the invasion did not happen.

Remember this tweet!

Thanks for your responses, Bill! I certainly hope you're right.

Fat Cat wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:21 pm

Wild Bill wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:08 am

Wild Bill wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:58 am I predict that in about a month, when invasion still not happened, Biden will make a loud statement about a diplomatic victory.
That it was only thanks to him that the invasion did not happen.

Remember this tweet!

Thanks for your responses, Bill! I certainly hope you're right.

Me too

This is pretty fascinating

https://zeihan.com/a-ukraine-war-and-the-end-of-russia/

Which brings us to the final bit of this story: demographics.

Russia’s had a rough time of…everything. The purges of Lenin and Stalin. The World Wars. The post-Soviet collapse. Horrific mismanagement under Khrushchev and Brezhnev and Yeltsin. Sometimes in endless waves, sometimes in searing moments, the Russian birthrate has taken hit after hit after hit to the point that the Russian ethnicity itself is no longer in danger of dying out, it is dying out. And for this particular moment in time, there just aren’t many teens today to fill out the ranks of the Russian military tomorrow.

Any Russian solider lost anywhere cannot be replaced. If Putin commits to an invasion of Ukraine, Russia will win. But the cost will not be minor. The war and occupation will be expensive and bloody and most importantly for the world writ large, it will expend what’s left of the Russian youth.