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What could be the second biggest UFC show in history was announced by Dana White over the weekend by saying the Chris Weidman vs. Anderson Silva middleweight title rematch will be on the same show as the Ronda Rousey vs. Miesha Tate women’s bantamweight title match.
The show, UFC 168, takes place on 12/28 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. Silva had confirmed the date before White’s announcement in an interview with the Brazil version of GQ Magazine.
Immediately people started making predictions on what type of numbers the show would do. The initial reaction is it would be the second biggest show in company history, trailing only UFC 100, on July 11, 2009, which did an estimated 1.6 million PPV buys with a triple headliner of Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir in a grudge match for the heavyweight title, Georges St-Pierre vs. Thiago Alves for the welterweight title and a coaches battle off Ultimate Fighter with Dan Henderson vs. Michael Bisping.
White predicted a figure between 1.2 million and 1.4 million buys. But there are far too many factors to make any kind of an early prediction.
So much depends on the momentum and dynamic the show garners in the final week. This year’s biggest show, the 3/16 show, did phenomenal numbers based on Nick Diaz saying all kinds of crazy things in the final week. White had predicted 750,000 buys a month ahead of time, and the show ended up closing in on 1 million.
The biggest factor has to do with the situation with Fox Sports 1. The new network debuts on 8/17, and it may take time for the entire UFC fan base to familiarize themselves with a new channel. All of the key promotion will be on the new channel. In addition, it’s unclear how many homes the station will open with. At this point, according to a story in the Sports Business Journal, Fox doesn’t have carriage deals for DirecTV, the Dish Network or Time Warner Cable, representing 46 million of the 99 million cable and satellite homes in the U.S. With other deals not in place as well, it would appear that at this point they only have deals in 44 million homes, barely more than Fuel. But even if they hit the projected 90 million homes, that is about 8 percent less than the number of homes that could get FX.
It’s not as bad as it sounds right now because a lot of times, these deals aren’t finalized until the last minute. The belief is that cable distributors were paying about 23 cents per subscriber for The Speed Channel, which is turning into FS 1. Fox is looking for an increase with contracts that start at 80 cents per subscriber, but grow to $1.50 per subscriber within a few years. If you multiply those numbers by 90-100 million, that’s the kind of carriage revenue they are hoping the new station can deliver. A lot of systems thought they would be able to maintain the 23 cents level with the change, at least until their contracts expire. Apparently Fox isn’t allowing that. But if any of those key distributors don’t carry the channel, while actual ratings won’t be affected, total viewership numbers would, This would hurt UFC with the reach of its TV shows. While it is unlikely it would work out like this, right now based on deals in place Ultimate Fighter and the Countdown shows, may have a far more limited exposure level than first anticipated. And they still have to get viewers used to watching an unfamiliar channel.
On the Rousey vs. Tate fight, the keys to the success are what happens on The Ultimate Fighter show, if the season makes you want to see the women fight, and second, how many viewers end up watching each week, given it’s on another new night (Wednesday) on an unfamiliar channel
Silva vs. Weidman has gotten a good amount of mainstream publicity with the nature of the finish and the idea it was one of the biggest upsets in UFC history. It was an upset, but not a major upset to the level a lot of the media talk has been. And it’s brought out the worst, because some people have been so sure that Silva couldn’t possibly lose to Weidman, and have thrown out accusations he threw the fight, which was ridiculous in this instance. What hasn’t been said is that within the industry, a lot of people were expecting Weidman to win all along.
But there are keys to whether that fight hits mainstream, which have to do with what Silva says and how visible it is, and whether Weidman comes across to the public as a big star in the buildup. The finish of the last fight and the intrigue it caused was perfect for a rematch. But you could say the same about Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard in their third meeting, and in the end, not that many people paid to see it.
There was a huge reaction after the match, but it was far more about Silva losing, or Silva showboating and losing, than Weidman winning. Still, Weidman was deluged with media and came across well doing it, but it’s going to be impossible to determine until the week before the fight, how much he will be presented as a star on his own.
UFC should promote this card as its 20th anniversary event. The first UFC show was on November 12, 1993, so the 11/16 show in Las Vegas is actually closest to a 20th anniversary. But it’s still the right year and not that far removed. Two title matches and it being presented as a special card, like UFC 100 was, to give it that WrestleMania aura, can make a big difference. And there’s also the very good chance when you’ve got four headliners that one can get hurt between now and the end of the year.
Christmas is also a factor. My belief is that for a monster event, a holiday date is a positive. That isn’t exactly a holiday date, but it’s the Saturday of a holiday weekend. A lot of people would be in the mood to watch as a group of friends or family if it’s huge. For pro wrestling, the week between Christmas and New Year’s, along with the weekend of Thanksgiving, were traditionally the two best weeks of the year for business. But that’s a different dynamic when it comes to television.
After Christmas you can more easily get either friends or the family together and do things. An event in town, or parents buying their kids tickets as a Christmas present when the event is the cool thing in the area is a strong positive.
A PPV is different than a live event, but a big event at a time people want to be together may tip some scales over to buying from skipping. In the mid-90s, the old UFC used to put on the “Ultimate New Year’s Eve” special, essentially a year-in-review show, on PPV every year, and those did excellent business during the hot period for a taped show with no new material.
The UFC’s annual New Year’s week tradition on PPV in the modern era started December 30, 2006, for the Chuck Liddell vs. Tito Ortiz fight that was UFC’s first to hit 1 million buys.
The 2007 version, with Liddell vs. Wanderlei Silva plus Georges St-Pierre vs. Matt Hughes for the interim welterweight title, did 700,000 buys, going head-to-head with the biggest NFL regular season game of the past few decades, a number that at the time was considered excellent.
The 2008 show, also approached 1 million buys with a triple main event of Forrest Griffin vs. Rashad Evans for the light heavyweight title, Mir vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira for the interim heavyweight title, and Wanderlei Silva vs. Rampage Jackson.
There was no 2009 show, instead there was a January 2, 2010, show headlined by Evans vs. Thiago Silva. That show was destroyed by injuries and did not do well based on usual numbers at the time, but did no worse than should have been expected given the main event.
The January 1, 2011, show, headlined by the second Edgar vs. Maynard fight, also didn’t do well, but it was also a show that would have been figured to do baseline numbers.
The December 30, 2011 show, may be the exception to the rule, Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem did about 540,000 buys, well below expectations. But this show had the disadvantage of being on an unfamiliar Friday night, Overeem was making his UFC debut and Lesnar was clearly hurt by the nature of his loss to Cain Velasquez.
Last year was the second Velasquez vs. Junior Dos Santos fight on December 29, 2012. That show didn’t do all that well. But Velasquez was largely an ethnic star, and it was a rematch off a one-punch knockout in their previous fight. It also had no marquee undercard fights with Jim Miller vs. Joe Lauzon, a great fight but not a fight with big stars, in the No. 2 position.
So the results bear out the theory. The week helps if it’s a big time major show, but doesn’t help a normal show much if at all.
There’s also the aspect of a Prime Time show, whether for one fight, or for both. UFC hasn’t done one of those since Rousey vs. Liz Carmouche. The problem is, it’s a lot of money to spend for a show that would air on Fuel. So much depends on if Fox Sports 1 comes out strong.
Still, the double title match card should be the second biggest in history. Silva vs. Weidman is one of the bigger rematches ever. It’s probably not the biggest to the public, although it will be promoted like it was. But of all the major rematches in history, only Lesnar vs. Mir had a No. 2 fight of that level.
You are only as good as your last fight! While you are still active.
It's when you are retired and training up other winners or your some brain dead old fuck, working the parts counter at Trash Auto; that you get your overall record looked at. 
